Related papers: Detection of Temporal Variability in U.S. Climate …
El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest source of interannual climate variability. Although its center of action is in the tropical Pacific, it has significant influences on the climate at the planetary scale. ENSO is…
A comprehensive understanding of the behaviours of the various geophysical processes and an effective evaluation of time series (else referred to as "stochastic") simulation models require, among others, detailed investigations across…
We derive formulae connecting the frequency variations in the spectrum of solar oscillations to the dynamical quantities that are expected to change over the solar activity cycle. This is done for both centroids and the asymmetric part of…
Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of…
The surface air temperature daily records at the land-based locations with different climate conditions (from Arctic to Patagonia) have been studied on the daily to intraseasonal time scales (low frequency annual and seasonal variations…
Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…
We analyze European temperature variability from station data with the method of detrended fluctuation analysis. This method is known to give a scaling exponent indicating long range correlations in time for temperature anomalies. However,…
We develop and compare model-error representation schemes derived from data assimilation increments and nudging tendencies in multi-decadal simulations of the community atmosphere model, version 6. Each scheme applies a bias correction…
Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale…
The study of Planktonic Foraminifera abundances permits to obtain climatic curves on the basis of percentage ratio between tropical and temperate/polar forms. Climatic changes were controlled by several phenomena as: (i) Milankovitch's…
The problem of estimating trend and seasonal variation in time-series data has been studied over several decades, although mostly using single time series. This paper studies the problem of estimating these components from functional data,…
Dryland ecosystems commonly exhibit periodic bands of vegetation, thought to form due to competition between individual plants for heterogeneously distributed water. In this paper, we develop a Fourier method for locally identifying the…
We assess empirical models in climate econometrics using modern statistical learning techniques. Existing approaches are prone to outliers, ignore sample dependencies, and lack principled model selection. To address these issues, we…
Improved understanding of characteristics related to weather forecast accuracy in the United States may help meteorologists develop more accurate predictions and may help Americans better interpret their daily weather forecasts. This…
We use an extensive NOAA database of hourly precipitation data from 5995 stations in the 48 contiguous United States over the period 1949--2009 to investigate possible trends in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, defined…
Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-time…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial…
Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…
Climate change is a massive multidimensional shift. Temperature shifts, in particular, have important implications for urbanization, agriculture, health, productivity, and poverty, among other things. While much research has documented…