Related papers: Reverse Stress Testing for Supply Chain Resilience
This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed…
In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…
The quest for diversification has led to an increasing number of complex funds with a high number of strategies and non-linear payoffs. The new generation of Alternative Risk Premia (ARP) funds are an example that has been very popular in…
When changes are performed on an automated production system (aPS), new faults can be accidentally introduced in the system, which are called regressions. A common method for finding these faults is regression testing. In most cases, this…
Stress testing, and in particular, reverse stress testing, is a prominent exercise in risk management practice. Reverse stress testing, in contrast to (forward) stress testing, aims to find an alternative but plausible model such that under…
Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many…
Disasters and disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic can significantly interrupt supply chains and industries. To control these disruptions, decision-makers must focus on supply chain resiliency. This paper proposes a multi-stage,…
In modern power systems, the operating point, at which the demand and supply are balanced, may take different values due to changes in loads and renewable generation levels. Understanding the dynamics of stressed power systems with a range…
Supply chain disruptions cause shortages of raw material and products. To increase resilience, i.e., the ability to cope with shocks, substituting goods in established supply chains can become an effective alternative to creating new…
After decades of research, cascading blackouts remain one of the unresolved challenges in the bulk power system operations. A new perspective for measuring the susceptibility of the system to cascading failures is clearly needed. The newly…
Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine) - that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies - this paper explores the supply…
The networked nature of supply chains makes them susceptible to systemic risk, where local firm failures can propagate through firm interdependencies that can lead to cascading supply chain disruptions. The systemic risk of supply chains…
Supply chains need to balance competing objectives; in addition to efficiency they need to be resilient to adversarial and environmental interference, and robust to uncertainties in long term demand. Significant research has been conducted…
Modern macroeconomic theories were unable to foresee the last Great Recession and could neither predict its prolonged duration nor the recovery rate. They are based on supply-demand equilibria that do not exist during recessionary shocks.…
Modern production systems are increasingly defined by dense networks of multi-tier sourcing dependencies, where localized upstream disruptions can cascade into system-wide collapses. While supply chain resilience has garnered significant…
Electricity systems are experiencing increased effects of randomness and variability due to emerging stochastic assets. The increased effects introduce new uncertainties into power systems that can impact system operability and reliability.…
Physical risks, such as droughts, floods, rising temperatures, earthquakes, infrastructure failures, and geopolitical conflicts, can ripple through global supply chains, raising costs, and constraining production across industries.…
A key objective of the smart grid is to improve reliability of utility services to end users. This requires strengthening resilience of distribution networks that lie at the edge of the grid. However, distribution networks are exposed to…
Due to delays in the adaptation of production or delivery rates, supply chains can be dynamically unstable with respect to perturbations in the consumption rate, which is known as "bull-whip effect". Here, we study several conceivable…
The COVID 19 pandemic and ongoing political and regional conflicts have a highly detrimental impact on the global supply chain, causing significant delays in logistics operations and international shipments. One of the most pressing…