Related papers: Reverse Stress Testing for Supply Chain Resilience
Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating…
As illustrated in recent years (Superstorm Sandy, the Northeast Ice Storm of 1998, etc.), extreme weather events pose an enormous threat to the electric power transmission systems and the associated socio-economic systems that depend on…
Maritime transportation systems (MTS) play a crucial role in ensuring the uninterrupted supply of essential goods and services, impacting the economy, border security and general welfare. However, MTS operations face disruptions from…
Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical…
Power systems are getting more complex than ever and are consequently operating close to their limit of stability. Moreover, with the increasing demand of renewable wind generation, and the requirement to maintain a secure power system, the…
Over the past decade, extreme weather events have significantly increased worldwide, leading to widespread power outages and blackouts. As these threats continue to challenge power distribution systems, the importance of mitigating the…
Since several years, the fragility of global supply chains (GSCs) is at historically high levels. In the same time, the landscape of hybrid threats is expanding; new forms of hybrid threats create different types of uncertainties. This…
The wide deployment of renewable generation and the gradual decrease in the overall system inertia make modern power grids more vulnerable to transient instabilities and unacceptable frequency fluctuations. Time-domain simulation-based…
Supply chain resilience analysis aims to identify the critical elements in the supply chain, measure its reliability, and analyze solutions for improving vulnerabilities. While extensive methods like stochastic approaches have been…
Recent Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable progress on task-specific benchmarks, yet their evaluation methods remain constrained by isolated problem-solving paradigms. Existing benchmarks predominantly assess…
We consider the problem where a modeller conducts sensitivity analysis of a model consisting of random input factors, a corresponding random output of interest, and a baseline probability measure. The modeller seeks to understand how the…
The aim of this paper is to show that in some cases risk averse multistage stochastic programming problems can be reformulated in a form of risk neutral setting. This is achieved by a change of the reference probability measure making…
A new measure to characterize stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbation is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable to disrupt the system and switch it…
We study the problem of sequentially testing whether a given stochastic process is generated by a known Markov chain. Formally, given access to a stream of random variables, we want to quickly determine whether this sequence is a trajectory…
We reverse engineer dynamics of financial contagion to find the scenario of smallest exogenous shock that, should it occur, would lead to a given final systemic loss. This reverse stress test can be used to identify the potential triggers…
To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental…
Following several episodes of financial market turmoil in recent decades, changes in systemic risk have drawn growing attention. Therefore, we propose surveillance schemes for systemic risk, which allow to detect misspecified systemic risk…
Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a…
The concept of resilience embodies the quest towards the ability to sustain shocks, to suffer from these shocks as little as possible, for the shortest time possible, and to recover with the full functionalities that existed before the…
Applications of reversible circuits can be found in the fields of low-power computation, cryptography, communications, digital signal processing, and the emerging field of quantum computation. Furthermore, prototype circuits for low-power…