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We present a novel approach to Bayesian inference and general Bayesian computation that is defined through a sequential decision loop. Our method defines a recursive partitioning of the sample space. It neither relies on gradients nor…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-10 Erik Bodin , Zhenwen Dai , Neill D. F. Campbell , Carl Henrik Ek

In this paper, we describe a novel application of sigma-point methods to continuous-discrete filtering. In principle, the nonlinear continuous- discrete filtering problem can be solved exactly. In practice, the solution contains terms that…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-15 Simon Lyons , Simo Särkkä , Amos Storkey

The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Edoardo Calvello , Pierre Monmarché , Andrew M. Stuart , Urbain Vaes

For many nonlinear Bayesian state estimation problems, the posterior recursion is not analytically tractable, leading to algorithms that are influenced by numerical approximation errors. These algorithms depend on parameters that affect the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-14 Ondrej Straka , Felipe Giraldo-Grueso , Renato Zanetti

Log-homotopy particle flow filters realize nonlinear Bayesian estimation by continuously migrating samples from the prior to the posterior distribution. This transport is governed by a pseudo-time ordinary differential equation (ODE). A…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-20 Domonkos Csuzdi , Tamás Bécsi , Olivér Törő

Sampling from nonsmooth target probability distributions is essential in various applications, including the Bayesian Lasso. We propose a splitting-based sampling algorithm for the time-implicit discretization of the probability flow for…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-14 Fuqun Han , Stanley Osher , Wuchen Li

This article develops a comprehensive framework for stability analysis of a broad class of commonly used continuous and discrete time-filters for stochastic dynamic systems with non-linear state dynamics and linear measurements under…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Toni Karvonen , Silvère Bonnabel , Eric Moulines , Simo Särkkä

We obtain a class of higher-degree stochastic integration filters (SIF) for nonlinear filtering applications. SIF are based on stochastic spherical-radial integration rules that achieve asymptotically exact evaluations of Gaussian weighted…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-08-02 Syed Safwan Khalid , Naveed Ur Rehman , Shafayat Abrar

State estimation for nonlinear systems, especially in high dimensions, is a generally intractable problem, despite the ever-increasing computing power. Efficient algorithms usually apply a finite-dimensional model for approximating the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-19 Olivér Törő , Tamás Bécsi

In this work, we present methods for state estimation in continuous-discrete nonlinear systems involving stochastic differential equations. We present the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter, the ensemble Kalman filter, and…

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in incorporating neural networks into particle filters, e.g. differentiable particle filters, to perform joint sequential state estimation and model learning for non-linear non-Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Xiongjie Chen , Yunpeng Li

The time evolution of the probability distribution of a stochastic differential equation follows the Fokker-Planck equation, which usually has an unbounded, high-dimensional domain. Inspired by our early study in \cite{li2018data}, we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Jiayu Zhai , Matthew Dobson , Yao Li

Particle smoothing enables state estimation in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models, but its practical use is often limited by high computational cost. Backward smoothing methods such as the Forward Filter Backward Smoother (FFBS)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Genshiro Kitagawa

High-dimensional partial differential equations (PDE) appear in a number of models from the financial industry, such as in derivative pricing models, credit valuation adjustment (CVA) models, or portfolio optimization models. The PDEs in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Christian Beck , Weinan E , Arnulf Jentzen

Least squares support vector machines are a commonly used supervised learning method for nonlinear regression and classification. They can be implemented in either their primal or dual form. The latter requires solving a linear system,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Maximilian Lucassen , Johan A. K. Suykens , Kim Batselier

This article presents an up-to-date tutorial review of nonlinear Bayesian estimation. State estimation for nonlinear systems has been a challenge encountered in a wide range of engineering fields, attracting decades of research effort. To…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-12-15 Huazhen Fang , Ning Tian , Yebin Wang , MengChu Zhou , Mulugeta A. Haile

We consider high order approximations of the solution of the stochastic filtering problem, derive their pathwise representation in the spirit of the earlier work of Clark and Davis and prove their robustness property. In particular, we show…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Dan Crisan , Alexander Lobbe , Salvador Ortiz-Latorre

We propose a method for optimal Bayesian filtering with deterministic particles. In order to avoid particle degeneration, the filter step is not performed at once. Instead, the particles progressively flow from prior to posterior. This is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Uwe D. Hanebeck

The Bayesian smoothing equations are generally intractable for systems described by nonlinear stochastic differential equations and discrete-time measurements. Gaussian approximations are a computationally efficient way to approximate the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Juha Ala-Luhtala , Simo Särkkä , Robert Piché

We analyze the performance of different resampling strategies for the regularized particle filter regarding parameter estimation. We show in particular, building on analytical insight obtained in the linear Gaussian case, that resampling…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-12 Pierre Carmier , Olexiy Kyrgyzov , Paul-Henry Cournède