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As the volatility of electricity demand increases owing to climate change and electrification, the importance of accurate peak load forecasting is increasing. Traditional peak load forecasting has been conducted through time series-based…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-22 Juyong Lee , Youngsang Cho

The mining of bitcoin is modeled using system dynamics, showing that the past evolution of the network hash rate can be explained to a large extent by an efficient market hypothesis applied to the mining of blocks. The possibility of a…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Davide Lasi , Lukas Saul

We extend the application and test the performance of a recently introduced volatility prediction framework encompassing LSTM and rough volatility. Our asset class of interest is cryptocurrencies, at the beginning of the "crypto-winter" in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-28 Siu Hin Tang , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Chao Zhou

We develop a procedure for forecasting the volatility of a time series immediately following a news shock. Adapting the similarity-based framework of Lin and Eck (2020), we exploit series that have experienced similar shocks. We aggregate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-08 David P. Lundquist , Daniel J. Eck

The rapid development of information technology, especially the Internet, has facilitated users with a quick and easy way to seek information. With these convenience offered by internet services, many individuals who initially invested in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Novan Fauzi Al Giffary , Feri Sulianta

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making processes across diverse fields including meteorology, traffic, electricity, economics, finance, and so on. Especially, predicting returns on financial instruments is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Yuki Takemoto

Unlike price fluctuations, the temporal structure of cryptocurrency trading has seldom been a subject of systematic study. In order to fill this gap, we analyse detrended correlations of the price returns, the average number of trades in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-03 Marcin Wątorek , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż

Time series data play a critical role in various fields, including finance, healthcare, marketing, and engineering. A wide range of techniques (from classical statistical models to neural network-based approaches such as Long Short-Term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Sina Kazemdehbashi

We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-03 Yeguang Chi , Qionghua , Chu , Wenyan Hao

This study identifies the key factors influencing the price movements of major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Binance Coin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and Tether, using Bayesian networks (BNs). This study addresses two key challenges:…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-22 Rasoul Amirzadeh , Asef Nazari , Dhananjay Thiruvady , Mong Shan Ee

On the Ethereum network, it is challenging to determine a gas price that ensures a transaction will be included in a block within a user's required timeline without overpaying. One way of addressing this problem is through the use of gas…

Applications · Statistics 2023-05-19 ChihYun Chuang , TingFang Lee

MAE, MSE and RMSE performance indicators are used to analyze the performance of different stocks predicted by LSTM and ARIMA models in this paper. 50 listed company stocks from finance.yahoo.com are selected as the research object in the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-09-07 Ruochen Xiao , Yingying Feng , Lei Yan , Yihan Ma

Organizing and managing cryptocurrency portfolios and decision-making on transactions is crucial in this market. Optimal selection of assets is one of the main challenges that requires accurate prediction of the price of cryptocurrencies.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Arash Peik , Mohammad Ali Zare Chahooki , Amin Milani Fard , Mehdi Agha Sarram

We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-21 Luca Vincenzo Ballestra , Enzo D'Innocenzo , Christian Tezza

Over the past decade, the blockchain technology and its Bitcoin cryptocurrency have received considerable attention. Bitcoin has experienced significant price swings in daily and long-term valuations. In this paper, we propose a partial…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-26 Yufang Wang , Haiyan Wang

The long-term dependence of Bitcoin (BTC), manifesting itself through a Hurst exponent $H>0.5$, is exploited in order to predict future BTC/USD price. A Monte Carlo simulation with $10^4$ geometric fractional Brownian motion realisations is…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-04 Mariusz Tarnopolski

Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing rapid growth, but this expansion comes with significant challenges, particularly in predicting cryptocurrency prices for traders in the U.S. In this study, we explore how deep learning and machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Md Zahidul Islam , Md Shafiqur Rahman , Md Sumsuzoha , Babul Sarker , Md Rafiqul Islam , Mahfuz Alam , Sanjib Kumar Shil

In this research paper, I have performed time series analysis and forecasted the monthly value of housing starts for the year 2019 using several econometric methods - ARIMA(X), VARX, (G)ARCH and machine learning algorithms - artificial…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-05-21 Sudiksha Joshi

Cryptocurrency, the most controversial and simultaneously the most interesting asset, has attracted many investors and speculators in recent years. The visibly significant market capitalization of cryptos also motivates modern financial…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-10 Junjie Hu , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Weiyu Kuo

Forecasting can estimate the statement of events according to the historical data and it is considerably important in many disciplines. At present, time series models have been utilized to solve forecasting problems in various domains. In…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-03-10 S. Chen , X. Lan , Y. Hu , Q. Liu , Y. Deng