English
Related papers

Related papers: Bitcoin Forecasting with Classical Time Series Mod…

200 papers

The cryptocurrency market is amongst the fastest-growing of all the financial markets in the world. Unlike traditional markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and commodities, cryptocurrency market is considered to have larger…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-06 Fan Fang , Waichung Chung , Carmine Ventre , Michail Basios , Leslie Kanthan , Lingbo Li , Fan Wu

This research examines the correlations between the return volatility of cryptocurrencies, global stock market indices, and the spillover effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employed a two-stage multivariate volatility…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-26 Apostolos Ampountolas

This study proposes a novel methodological framework integrating a LightGBM regression model and genetic algorithm (GA) optimization to systematically evaluate the contribution of COVID-19-related indicators to Bitcoin return prediction.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Imen Mahmoud , Andrei Velichko

Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer payment system proposed by Nakamoto in 2008. Based on the Nakamoto consensus, Bagaria, Kannan, Tse, Fanti, and Viswanath proposed the Prism protocol in 2018 and showed that it achieves near-optimal blockchain…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-04-27 Jing Li , Dongning Guo

Short term electricity price forecast is essential in competitive power markets, yet electricity price series exhibit high volatility, irregularity, and non-stationarity. This phenomenon is pronounced in the South Australian region of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Wei Lu , Jay Wang , Dingli Duan , Ding Mao , Caiyi Song , John Huang

This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Leonard Mushunje , David Allen , Shelton Peiris

Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Arthur Emanuel de Oliveira Carosia

We present positive evidence of price stability of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange. For the sample years from 2016 to 2020, the prices of major cryptocurrencies are found to be stable, relative to major financial assets.…

General Economics · Economics 2021-12-14 Tatsuru Kikuchi , Toranosuke Onishi , Kenichi Ueda

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Rahul Arulkumaran , Suyash Kumar , Shikha Tomar , Manideep Gongalla , Harshitha

A model is proposed for Bitcoin prices that takes into account market attention. Market attention, modeled by a mean-reverting Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes, affects the volatility of Bitcoin returns, with some delay. The model is affine and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-17 Alvaro Guinea Julia , Alet Roux

This study was conducted to find an appropriate statistical model to forecast the volatilities of PSEi using the model Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Using the R software, the log returns of PSEi is…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-02 Novy Ann M. Etac , Roel F. Ceballos

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to multivariate forecasting cryptocurrency prices using a hybrid contextual model combining exponential smoothing (ES) and recurrent neural network (RNN). The model consists of two tracks: the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Slawek Smyl , Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

We analyze daily Airbnb service-fee shares across eleven settlement currencies, a compositional series that shows bursts of volatility after shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard Dirichlet time series models assume constant…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Harrison Katz , Robert E. Weiss

We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Reese , B. Rosenow

An algorithmic stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency managed by algorithms (i.e., smart contracts) to dynamically minimize the volatility of its price relative to a specific form of asset, e.g., US dollar. As algorithmic stablecoins have…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-01-22 Wenqi Zhao , Hui Li , Yuming Yuan

Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-07 Ava C. Blake , Nivika A. Gandhi , Anurag R. Jakkula

The goals of this paper are twofold: (1) to present a new method that is able to find linear laws governing the time evolution of Markov chains and (2) to apply this method for anomaly detection in Bitcoin prices. To accomplish these goals,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-25 Marcell T. Kurbucz , Péter Pósfay , Antal Jakovác

In the survey we consider the case studies on sales time series forecasting, the deep learning approach for forecasting non-stationary time series using time trend correction, dynamic price and supply optimization using Q-learning, Bitcoin…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-28 Menelaos Karanasos , Alexandros Paraskevopoulos , Faek Menla Ali , Michail Karoglou , Stavroula Yfanti

Bitcoin, one of the major cryptocurrencies, presents great opportunities and challenges with its tremendous potential returns accompanying high risks. The high volatility of Bitcoin and the complex factors affecting them make the study of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-04 Qiutong Guo , Shun Lei , Qing Ye , Zhiyang Fang