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Related papers: Counterfactual Forecasting for Panel Data

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We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-26 Timothy Christensen , Benjamin Connault

This paper focuses on investigating an inexact stochastic model-based optimization algorithm that integrates preconditioning techniques for solving stochastic composite optimization problems. The proposed framework unifies and extends the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-12 Chenglong Bao , Yancheng Yuan , Shulan Zhu

Counterfactual explanations provide actionable insights to achieve desired outcomes by suggesting minimal changes to input features. However, existing methods rely on fixed sets of mutable features, which makes counterfactual explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Stig Hellemans , Andres Algaba , Sam Verboven , Vincent Ginis

Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death, re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring. Counterfactual reasoning in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Chirag Nagpal , Mononito Goswami , Keith Dufendach , Artur Dubrawski

Counterfactual explanation is an important Explainable AI technique to explain machine learning predictions. Despite being studied actively, existing optimization-based methods often assume that the underlying machine-learning model is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Wenzhuo Yang , Jia Li , Caiming Xiong , Steven C. H. Hoi

Cloud computing involves complex technical and economical systems and interactions. This brings about various challenges, two of which are: (1) debugging and control to optimize the performance of computing systems, with the help of sandbox…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-11 Philipp Geiger , Lucian Carata , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Forecasting neural activity in response to naturalistic stimuli remains a key challenge for understanding brain dynamics and enabling downstream neurotechnological applications. Here, we introduce a generative forecasting framework for…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-14 Nicole Rogalla , Yuzhen Qin , Mario Senden , Ahmed El-Gazzar , Marcel van Gerven

Expected Shortfall (ES) is a coherent measure of tail risk that captures the average loss beyond a quantile threshold. Despite the growing literature on ES regression conditional on covariates, no existing work considers ES modeling in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Yujie Hou , Xinbing Kong , Yalin Wang , Bin Wu

Economists are blessed with a wealth of data for analysis, but more often than not, values in some entries of the data matrix are missing. Various methods have been proposed to handle missing observations in a few variables. We exploit the…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-02 Ercument Cahan , Jushan Bai , Serena Ng

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are a popular approach for interpreting machine learning predictions by identifying minimal feature changes that alter model outputs. However, in real-world settings, users often refine feasibility…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Christos Fragkathoulas , Evaggelia Pitoura

Counterfactual explanations have substantially increased in popularity in the past few years as a useful human-centric way of understanding individual black-box model predictions. While several properties desired of high-quality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Shubham Sharma , Alan H. Gee , Jette Henderson , Joydeep Ghosh

In this paper we study methods for estimating causal effects in settings with panel data, where some units are exposed to a treatment during some periods and the goal is estimating counterfactual (untreated) outcomes for the treated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-22 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Nikolay Doudchenko , Guido Imbens , Khashayar Khosravi

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Jie Yang , Yifan Hu , Yuante Li , Kexin Zhang , Kaize Ding , Philip S. Yu

The real world naturally has dimensions of time and space. Therefore, estimating the counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes is a crucial problem. However, previous methods are based on classical statistical models, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 He Li , Haoang Chi , Mingyu Liu , Wanrong Huang , Liyang Xu , Wenjing Yang

Forecasting motion and spatial positions of objects is of fundamental importance, especially in safety-critical settings such as autonomous driving. In this work, we address the issue by forecasting two different modalities that carry…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Andrea Ciamarra , Federico Becattini , Lorenzo Seidenari , Alberto Del Bimbo

Answering counterfactual queries has important applications such as explainability, robustness, and fairness but is challenging when the causal variables are unobserved and the observations are non-linear mixtures of these latent variables,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Zeyu Zhou , Ruqi Bai , Sean Kulinski , Murat Kocaoglu , David I. Inouye

We introduce MCCE: Monte Carlo sampling of valid and realistic Counterfactual Explanations for tabular data, a novel counterfactual explanation method that generates on-manifold, actionable and valid counterfactuals by modeling the joint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-26 Annabelle Redelmeier , Martin Jullum , Kjersti Aas , Anders Løland

We consider inference about coefficients on a small number of variables of interest in a linear panel data model with additive unobserved individual and time specific effects and a large number of additional time-varying confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-29 Christian Hansen , Yuan Liao

In this work, we propose an approach for assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounding in studies with multiple outcomes. We demonstrate how prior knowledge unique to the multi-outcome setting can be leveraged to strengthen causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Jiajing Zheng , Jiaxi Wu , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Along with the increasing availability of health data has come the rise of data-driven models to inform decision-making and policy. These models have the potential to benefit both patients and health care providers but can also exacerbate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Solvejg Wastvedt , Jared Huling , Julian Wolfson