Related papers: Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

Atmospheric wavefront prediction based on previous wavefront sensor measurements can greatly enhance the performance of adaptive optics systems. We propose an optimal linear approach based on the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF)…

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Interpreting the observations of exoplanet atmospheres to constrain physical and chemical properties is typically done using Bayesian retrieval techniques. Because these methods require many model computations, a compromise is made between…

Quantitative forecasting of average rainfall into the next season remains highly challenging, but in some favourable isolated cases may be possible with a series of relatively simple steps. We chose to explore predictions of austral…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…

Expectation propagation (EP) is a family of algorithms for performing approximate inference in probabilistic models. The updates of EP involve the evaluation of moments -- expectations of certain functions -- which can be estimated from…

The occurrence of extreme (rogue) waves in the ocean is for the most part still shrouded in mystery, as the rare nature of these events makes them difficult to analyze with traditional methods. Modern data mining and machine learning…

While fiducial inference was widely considered a big blunder by R.A. Fisher, the goal he initially set --`inferring the uncertainty of model parameters on the basis of observations' -- has been continually pursued by many statisticians. To…

Analysis of transient deformation events in time series data observed via networks of continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) ground stations provide insight into the magmatic and tectonic processes that drive volcanic activity. Typical…

Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) allows computations to be performed directly on encrypted data without needing to decrypt it first. This "encryption-in-use" feature is crucial for securely outsourcing computations in privacy-sensitive…

In the search for planets orbiting distant stars the presence of stellar activity in the atmospheres of observed stars can obscure the radial velocity signal used to detect such planets. Furthermore, this stellar activity contamination is…

One of the main goals of solar physics is the timely identification of eruptive active regions. Space missions such as Solar Orbiter or future Space Weather forecasting missions would largely benefit from this achievement. Our aim is to…

Cross entropy (XE) measure is a widely used benchmarking to demonstrate quantum computational advantage from sampling problems, such as random circuit sampling using superconducting qubits and boson sampling (BS). We present a heuristic…

The CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence's solar energetic particle (SEP) model, SOlar wind with FIeld lines and Energetic particles (SOFIE), was run and evaluated on-site during the Space Weather Prediction Testbed (SWPT) exercise at…

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are immense eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields that are propelled outward from the Sun, sometimes with velocities greater than 2000 km/s. They are responsible for some of the most severe space weather at…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides us with a way to infer parameters of models, for which the likelihood function is not available, from an observation. Using ABC, which depends on many simulations from the considered model, we…

Intuitive physics is pivotal for human understanding of the physical world, enabling prediction and interpretation of events even in infancy. Nonetheless, replicating this level of intuitive physics in artificial intelligence (AI) remains a…

'Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST)' is a Horizon 2020 project, which realized a technological platform for machine learning algorithms, with the objective of providing the space weather community with a prediction…

Physics-based Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for attributing climate change and generating scenario projections, yet their reliance on high-resolution numerical integration makes multi-decadal experiments expensive. In parallel,…

Functional encryption (FE) is a versatile paradigm that enables fine-grained access control over encrypted data. Despite its potential, achieving the gold standard of simulation-based security for FE is impossible in full generality. Known…