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Artificial intelligence has advanced global weather forecasting, outperforming traditional numerical models in both accuracy and computational efficiency. Nevertheless, extending predictions beyond subseasonal timescales requires the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-18 Jeong-Hwan Kim , Daehyun Kang , Young-Min Yang , Jae-Heung Park , Yoo-Geun Ham

Machine learning emulators have shown extraordinary skill in forecasting atmospheric states, and their application to global ocean dynamics offers similar promise. Here, we adapt the GraphCast architecture into a dedicated ocean-only…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Niraj Agarwal , Timothy A. Smith , Sergey Frolov , Laura C. Slivinski

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with a dynamical model to estimate states of PDE-governed systems. Model-driven methods (e.g., Kalman, particle) presuppose full knowledge of the true dynamics, which is not always satisfied in…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-06 Siyi Chen , Yixuan Jia , Qing Qu , He Sun , Jeffrey A Fessler

Weather prediction is a critical task for human society, where impressive progress has been made by training artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) methods with reanalysis data. However, reliance on reanalysis data limits the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Junchao Gong , Jingyi Xu , Ben Fei , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Kun Chen , Wanghan Xu , Weidong Yang , Xiaokang Yang , Lei Bai

We demonstrate a formulation of the Azouani-Olson-Titi (AOT) algorithm in the MPAS-Ocean implementation of the primitive equations of the ocean, presenting global ocean simulations with realistic coastlines and bathymetry. We observe an…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-01-12 Adam Larios , Mark R. Petersen , Collin Victor

Data Assimilation is a cornerstone of atmospheric system modeling, tasked with reconstructing system states by integrating sparse, noisy observations with prior estimation. While traditional approaches like variational and ensemble Kalman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Hao Wang , Zixuan Weng , Jindong Han , Wei Fan , Hao Liu

The weather and climate domains are undergoing a significant transformation thanks to advances in AI-based foundation models such as FourCastNet, GraphCast, ClimaX and Pangu-Weather. While these models show considerable potential, they are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Junqi Yin , Siming Liang , Siyan Liu , Feng Bao , Hristo G. Chipilski , Dan Lu , Guannan Zhang

Data assimilation addresses the problem of identifying plausible state trajectories of dynamical systems given noisy or incomplete observations. In geosciences, it presents challenges due to the high-dimensionality of geophysical dynamical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-03 François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-08 Marcin Chrust , Anthony T. Weaver , Philip Browne , Hao Zuo , Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda

Data assimilation (DA) aims to estimate the full state of a dynamical system by combining partial and noisy observations with a prior model forecast, commonly referred to as the background. In atmospheric applications, this problem is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-29 Jing-An Sun , Hang Fan , Junchao Gong , Ben Fei , Kun Chen , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Wanghan Xu , Li Yan , Pierre Gentine , Lei Bai

This paper presents a data-assimilation (DA)-based approach to forecast the phase-resolved wave evolution process and ship motion, which is developed by coupling the high-order spectral method (HOS), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-22 Guangyao Wang , Yulin Pan

Data assimilation refers to the process of obtaining an estimate of a system's state using a model for the system's time evolution and a time series of measurements that are possibly noisy and incomplete. However, for practical reasons, the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Matthew Cornick , Brian Hunt , Edward Ott , Michael F. Schatz

Spatiotemporal projections in marine science are essential for understanding ocean systems and their impact on Earth's climate. However, existing AI-based and statistics-based inversion methods face challenges in leveraging ocean data,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-06 Zhixi Xiong , Yukang Jiang , Wenfang Lu , Xueqin Wang , Ting Tian

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-02-25 Amirmoez Jamaat , Yalan Song , Farshid Rahmani , Jiangtao Liu , Kathryn Lawson , Chaopeng Shen

Accurate ocean forecasting is essential for supporting a wide range of marine applications. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have highlighted the potential of data-driven models to outperform traditional numerical approaches,…

Ocean forecasting is crucial for both scientific research and societal benefits. Currently, the most accurate forecasting systems are global ocean forecasting systems (GOFSs), which represent the ocean state variables (OSVs) as discrete…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-01 Nan Yang , Chong Wang , Meihua Zhao , Zimeng Zhao , Huiling Zheng , Bin Zhang , Jianing Wang , Xiaofeng Li

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

A deep learning (DL) model, based on a transformer architecture, is trained on a climate-model dataset and compared with a standard linear inverse model (LIM) in the tropical Pacific. We show that the DL model produces more accurate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-12 Zilu Meng , Gregory J. Hakim

Flood simulation and forecast capability have been greatly improved thanks to advances in data assimilation. Such an approach combines in-situ gauge measurements with numerical hydrodynamic models to correct the hydraulic states and reduce…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-07 Thanh Huy Nguyen , Sophie Ricci , Christophe Fatras , Andrea Piacentini , Anthéa Delmotte , Emeric Lavergne , Peter Kettig

Global ocean forecasting aims to predict key ocean variables such as temperature, salinity, and currents, which is essential for understanding and describing oceanic phenomena. In recent years, data-driven deep learning-based ocean forecast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Haoming Jia , Yi Han , Xiang Wang , Huizan Wang , Wei Wu , Jianming Zheng , Peikun Xiao