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Recent advancements in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and surrogate modelling have significantly enhanced the feasibility of Bayesian analysis across engineering fields. However, the selection and integration of surrogate models…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-11-22 Leon Riccius , Iuri B. C. M. Rocha , Joris Bierkens , Hanne Kekkonen , Frans P. van der Meer

This paper proposes a multilevel sampling algorithm for fiber sampling problems in algebraic statistics, inspired by Henry Wynn's suggestion to adapt multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) ideas to discrete models. Focusing on log-linear models, we…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-16 Nathan Kirk , Ivan Gvozdanović , Sonja Petrović

Boolean Satisfiability Problem (SAT) is one of the core problems in computer science. As one of the fundamental NP-complete problems, it can be used - by known reductions - to represent instances of variety of hard decision problems.…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Michał Karpiński

When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Tavis Abrahamsen , James P. Hobert

The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-12 Vivekananda Roy , Aixin Tan , James M. Flegal

Perfect sampling is a technique that uses coupling arguments to provide a sample from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain in a finite time without ever computing the distribution. This technique is very efficient if all the events…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Ana Bušić , Bruno Gaujal , Furcy Pin

We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-01 Benjamin Farr , Vicky Kalogera , Erik Luijten

This paper proposes self-normalized tests for multistep conditional predictive ability in forecast comparison. By normalizing the sample mean of the transformed loss differential using functionals of its cumulative sum (CUSUM) process,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Qitong Chen , Shuwen Lai

We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Zhongzhen Wang , Petros Dellaportas , Ioannis Kosmidis

The Circuit Satisfiability (CSAT) problem, a variant of the Boolean Satisfiability (SAT) problem, plays a critical role in integrated circuit design and verification. However, existing SAT solvers, optimized for Conjunctive Normal Form…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-07-03 Zhengyuan Shi , Tiebing Tang , Jiaying Zhu , Sadaf Khan , Hui-Ling Zhen , Mingxuan Yuan , Zhufei Chu , Qiang Xu

Given a CNF formula F on n variables, the problem of model counting or #SAT is to compute the number of satisfying assignments of F . Model counting is a fundamental but hard problem in computer science with varied applications. Recent…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-05-01 Kuldeep S. Meel , S. Akshay

We introduce a new family of MCMC samplers that combine auxiliary variables, Gibbs sampling and Taylor expansions of the target density. Our approach permits the marginalisation over the auxiliary variables yielding marginal samplers, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-26 Michalis K. Titsias , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos

Statistical inference in evolutionary models with site-dependence is a long-standing challenge in phylogenetics and computational biology. We consider the problem of approximating marginal sequence likelihoods under dependent-site models of…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-12 Joseph Mathews , Scott C. Schmidler

Sampling from posterior distributions using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can require an exhaustive number of iterations, particularly when the posterior is multi-modal as the MCMC sampler can become trapped in a local mode for a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-30 Christopher Nemeth , Fredrik Lindsten , Maurizio Filippone , James Hensman

This paper investigates approaches to parallelizing Bounded Model Checking (BMC) for shared memory environments as well as for clusters of workstations. We present a generic framework for parallelized BMC named Tarmo. Our framework can be…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2009-12-15 Siert Wieringa , Matti Niemenmaa , Keijo Heljanko

We study the fair sampling properties of hybrid quantum-classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for combinatorial optimization problems with degenerate ground states. While quantum optimization heuristics such as quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-17 Yuichiro Nakano , Keisuke Fujii

Concurrent systems are notoriously difficult to analyze, and technological advances such as weak memory architectures greatly compound this problem. This has renewed interest in partial order semantics as a theoretical foundation for formal…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-04-02 Alex Horn , Daniel Kroening

This paper concerns the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior sampling in Bayesian nonparametric mixture models with normalized random measure priors. Making use of some recent posterior characterizations for the class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-03 Stefano Favaro , Yee Whye Teh

Monte Carlo sampling methods often suffer from long correlation times. Consequently, these methods must be run for many steps to generate an independent sample. In this paper a method is proposed to overcome this difficulty. The method…

Computation · Statistics 2007-09-13 Jonathan Weare

Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Thomas Y. Sun , Daniel R. Kowal