Related papers: An epidemiological model with waning immunity and …
Coalescent models are used to study the transmission dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens from molecular sequence data obtained from infected individuals. However coalescent parameters, such as effective population size, offer limited…
During infectious disease outbreaks, estimates of time-varying pathogen transmissibility, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R(t) or epidemic growth rate r(t), are used to inform decision-making by public health authorities. For…
We generalize the Susceptible-Infected-Removed model for epidemics to take into account generic effects of heterogeneity in the degree of susceptibility to infection in the population. We introduce a single new parameter corresponding to a…
This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
We model and calculate the fraction of infected population necessary to reach herd immunity, taking into account the heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility, as well as the correlation between those two parameters. We show that…
Although community structure is ubiquitous in complex networks, few works exploit this topological property to control epidemics. In this work, devoted to networks with non-overlapping community structure (i.e, a node belongs to a single…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…
A cholera transmission model incorporating water-borne and horizontal transmissions as well as infectivity of deceased individuals is formulated and studied. The model also describes an imperfect and waning vaccination. Global stability of…
Epidemic risk assessment poses inherent challenges, with traditional approaches often failing to balance health outcomes and economic constraints. This paper presents a data-driven decision support tool that models epidemiological dynamics…
Early on during a pandemic, vaccine availability is limited, requiring prioritisation of different population groups. Evaluating vaccine allocation is therefore a crucial element of pandemics response. In the present work, we develop a…
In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all…
In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kind of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be…
Network epidemiology has become a core framework for investigating the role of human contact patterns in the spreading of infectious diseases. In network epidemiology represents the contact structure as a network of nodes (individuals)…
Despite the enormous relevance of zoonotic infections to world- wide public health, and despite much effort in modeling individual zoonoses, a fundamental understanding of the disease dynamics and the nature of outbreaks arising in such…
We consider the problem of the optimal allocation of vaccination and protection measures for the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Infected (SIRI) epidemiological model, which generalizes the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and…