Related papers: Vector Traits Shape Disease Persistence: A Predato…
Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…
Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict…
Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of…
In this investigation we study the effects of climate change on predator-prey population dynamics. The interaction of predator and prey is described by the Variable Territory (VT) model with Allee effects in an Ordinary Differential…
An age structured mathematical model with time dependent parameters is developed to investigate the dynamics of dengue transmission. Its properties are thoroughly analyzed in the first part of this work, as for example its disease free…
Artificial releases of Wolbachia-infected Aedes mosquitoes have been under study in the past years for fighting vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and zika. Several strains of this bacterium cause cytoplasmic incompatibility…
We formulate a multi-group and multi-vector epidemic model in which hosts' dynamics is captured by staged-progression $SEIR$ framework and the dynamics of vectors is captured by an $SI$ framework. The proposed model describes the evolution…
Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a neurological disease impacting deer, elk, moose, and other cervid populations and is caused by a misfolded protein known as a prion. CWD is difficult to control due to the persistence of prions in the…
West Nile virus (WNV) is prevalent in the United States but it shows considerable divergence in transmission patterns and spatio-temporal intensity.It is to be noted that the mechanism that drives the transmission potential of WNV is…
In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The model is based on the fitting of a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…
Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in urban areas, particularly in tropical regions such as Singapore. Effective and affordable control requires anticipating where transmission risks are…
The assumption that vector mortality remains constant with age is used widely to assess malaria transmission risk and predict the public health consequences of vector control strategies. However, laboratory studies commonly demonstrate…
Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple diseases, such as Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya. Due to modifications in weather patterns, its geographical range is continuously evolving. Temperature is a key factor for its expansion into…
The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental…
When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…
We consider random perturbations of a general eco-epidemiological model. We prove the existence of a global random attractor, the persistence of susceptibles preys and provide conditions for the simultaneous extinction of infectives and…
This study presents a seasonally forced cholera model that incorporates imperfect vaccination as a control strategy. The model captures the temporal dynamics of susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered individuals, as well as the…