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Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Lizao Li , Rob Carver , Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Fei Sha , John Anderson

Although numerical weather forecasting methods have dominated the field, recent advances in deep learning methods, such as diffusion models, have shown promise in ensemble weather forecasting. However, such models are typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Kevin Valencia , Ziyang Liu , Justin Cui

Diffusion models are the mainstream approach for time series generation tasks. However, existing diffusion models for time series generation require retraining the entire framework to introduce specific conditional guidance. There also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Mingchun Sun , Rongqiang Zhao , Hengrui Hu , Songyu Ding , Jie Liu

Diffusion models excel in solving imaging inverse problems due to their ability to model complex image priors. However, their reliance on large, clean datasets for training limits their practical use where clean data is scarce. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Weimin Bai , Yifei Wang , Wenzheng Chen , He Sun

Interpreting EEG signals linked to spoken language presents a complex challenge, given the data's intricate temporal and spatial attributes, as well as the various noise factors. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), which have…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-15 Soowon Kim , Seo-Hyun Lee , Young-Eun Lee , Ji-Won Lee , Ji-Ha Park , Seong-Whan Lee

Diffusion models are a class of flexible generative models trained with an approximation to the log-likelihood objective. However, most use cases of diffusion models are not concerned with likelihoods, but instead with downstream objectives…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-08 Kevin Black , Michael Janner , Yilun Du , Ilya Kostrikov , Sergey Levine

Diffusion models demonstrate remarkable capabilities in capturing complex data distributions and have achieved compelling results in many generative tasks. While they have recently been extended to dense prediction tasks such as depth…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Haorui Ji , Taojun Lin , Hongdong Li

Downscaling, or super-resolution, provides decision-makers with detailed, high-resolution information about the potential risks and impacts of climate change, based on climate model output. Machine learning algorithms are proving themselves…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-30 Robbie A. Watt , Laura A. Mansfield

Diffusion models have recently exhibited remarkable abilities to synthesize striking image samples since the introduction of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). Their key idea is to disrupt images into noise through a fixed…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Zijian Zhang , Zhou Zhao , Jun Yu , Qi Tian

Denoising diffusion models are a powerful type of generative models used to capture complex distributions of real-world signals. However, their applicability is limited to scenarios where training samples are readily available, which is not…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-20 Ayush Tewari , Tianwei Yin , George Cazenavette , Semon Rezchikov , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Frédo Durand , William T. Freeman , Vincent Sitzmann

We present DEF (\textbf{\ul{D}}iffusion-augmented \textbf{\ul{E}}nsemble \textbf{\ul{F}}orecasting), a novel approach for generating initial condition perturbations. Modern approaches to initial condition perturbations are primarily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 David Millard , Arielle Carr , Stéphane Gaudreault , Ali Baheri

In this article, we present a mathematical theory of the Walker circulation of the large-scale atmosphere over the tropics. This study leads to a new metastable state oscillation theory for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a typical…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2010-05-14 Tian Ma , Shouhong Wang

The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Vladimir N. Stepanov

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks by progressively adding noise to data through a forward process and then reversing this process to generate realistic samples. While these models have achieved strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Xingzhuo Guo , Yu Zhang , Baixu Chen , Haoran Xu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-03-02 Andrei Gabrielov , Vladimir Keilis-Borok , Sayaka Olsen , Ilya Zaliapin

Model-based reinforcement learning methods often use learning only for the purpose of estimating an approximate dynamics model, offloading the rest of the decision-making work to classical trajectory optimizers. While conceptually simple,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-22 Michael Janner , Yilun Du , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Sergey Levine

Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for the safe and efficient operation of autonomous vehicles. The growing popularity of deep learning has led to the development of numerous methods for trajectory prediction. While deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-30 Kehua Chen , Xianda Chen , Zihan Yu , Meixin Zhu , Hai Yang

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-04 J. Ludescher , J. Meng , J. Fan , A. Bunde , H. J. Schellnhuber

We consider the problem of simulating diffusion bridges, which are diffusion processes that are conditioned to initialize and terminate at two given states. The simulation of diffusion bridges has applications in diverse scientific fields…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-19 Jeremy Heng , Valentin De Bortoli , Arnaud Doucet , James Thornton

We present a conditional diffusion model for electromagnetic inverse design that generates structured media geometries directly from target differential scattering cross-section profiles, bypassing expensive iterative optimization. Our 1D…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Mikhail Tsukerman , Konstantin Grotov , Pavel Ginzburg