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We develop a new efficient methodology for Bayesian global sensitivity analysis for large-scale multivariate data. The focus is on computationally demanding models with correlated variables. A multivariate Gaussian process is used as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Oluwole Oyebamiji , Christopher Nemeth , Paula Harrison , Rob Dunford , George Cojocaru

Gaussian process (GP) surrogate modeling for large computer experiments is limited by cubic runtimes, especially with data from stochastic simulations with input-dependent noise. A popular workaround to reduce computational complexity…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 D Austin Cole , Robert B Gramacy , Mike Ludkovski

Online anomaly detection of time-series data is an important and challenging task in machine learning. Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and flexible models for modeling time-series data. However, the high time complexity of GPs limits…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Jingjing Fei , Shiliang Sun

Sparse regression on a library of candidate features has developed as the prime method to discover the partial differential equation underlying a spatio-temporal data-set. These features consist of higher order derivatives, limiting model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-05 Gert-Jan Both , Gijs Vermarien , Remy Kusters

Deep geological repositories are critical for the long-term storage of hazardous materials, where understanding the mechanical behavior of emplacement drifts is essential for safety assurance. This study presents a surrogate modeling…

There is a high interest in accelerating multiscale models using data-driven surrogate modeling techniques. Creating a large training dataset encompassing all relevant load scenarios is essential for a good surrogate, yet the computational…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-24 J. Storm , W. Sun , I. B. C. M. Rocha , F. P. van der Meer

A digital twin is a computer model that represents an individual, for example, a component, a patient or a process. In many situations, we want to gain knowledge about an individual from its data while incorporating imperfect physical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-03 Michail Spitieris , Ingelin Steinsland

We propose a parallelizable sparse inverse formulation Gaussian process (SpInGP) for temporal models. It uses a sparse precision GP formulation and sparse matrix routines to speed up the computations. Due to the state-space formulation used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-29 Alexander Grigorievskiy , Neil Lawrence , Simo Särkkä

Bayesian optimization (BO) has well-documented merits for optimizing black-box functions with an expensive evaluation cost. Such functions emerge in applications as diverse as hyperparameter tuning, drug discovery, and robotics. BO hinges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Qin Lu , Konstantinos D. Polyzos , Bingcong Li , Georgios B. Giannakis

We present a quadrotor dynamics Gaussian Process (GP) with gradient information that achieves real-time inference via state-space partitioning and approximation, and that includes aerodynamic effects using data from mid-fidelity potential…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Xinhuan Sang , Adam Rozman , Sheryl Grace , Roberto Tron

Spherical tokamaks (STs) have many desirable features that make them a suitable choice for fusion power plants. To understand their confinement properties, accurate calculation of turbulent micro-instabilities is necessary for tokamak…

Mesh-based numerical solvers are an important part in many design tool chains. However, accurate simulations like computational fluid dynamics are time and resource consuming which is why surrogate models are employed to speed-up the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-27 Sebastian Strönisch , Maximilian Sander , Andreas Knüpfer , Marcus Meyer

Spectral functions encode key many-body information but are costly to compute with high fidelity. Machine-learning surrogates have emerged as a powerful alternative, yet many approaches require large training datasets. We develop a…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2026-05-08 Sanket Jantre , Nathan M. Urban , Weiguo Yin , Niraj Aryal

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical PDEs, dynamical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Matthias Chung , Deepanshu Verma , Max Collins , Amit N. Subrahmanya , Varuni Katti Sastry , Vishwas Rao

This paper develops a surrogate model refinement approach for the simulation of dynamical systems and the solution of optimization problems governed by dynamical systems in which surrogates replace expensive-to-compute state- and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-08 Jonathan R. Cangelosi , Matthias Heinkenschloss

Derivatives are a key nonparametric functional in wide-ranging applications where the rate of change of an unknown function is of interest. In the Bayesian paradigm, Gaussian processes (GPs) are routinely used as a flexible prior for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Zejian Liu , Meng Li

We consider the estimation of sensitivity indices based on divergence measures such as Hellinger distance. For sensitivity analysis of complex models, these divergence-based indices can be estimated by Monte-Carlo sampling (MCS) in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-18 A. W. Eggels , D. T. Crommelin

Real-world datasets often exhibit temporal dynamics characterized by evolving data distributions. Disregarding this phenomenon, commonly referred to as concept drift, can significantly diminish a model's predictive accuracy. Furthermore,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Mohammad Abu-Shaira , Ajita Rattani , Weishi Shi

Surrogate models based on machine learning methods have become an important part of modern engineering to replace costly computer simulations. The data used for creating a surrogate model are essential for the model accuracy and often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-03 Sven Lämmle , Can Bogoclu , Kevin Cremanns , Dirk Roos

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-21 Gia-Lac Tran , Dimitrios Milios , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone