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Related papers: LLMs are Overconfident: Evaluating Confidence Inte…

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Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance on diverse tasks but often exhibit cognitive inertia, struggling to follow instructions that conflict with the standardized patterns learned during supervised fine-tuning (SFT). To…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks. However, these models could offer biased, hallucinated, or non-factual responses camouflaged by their fluency and realistic appearance. Uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Zhiqiu Xia , Jinxuan Xu , Yuqian Zhang , Hang Liu

Assessing factuality of text generated by large language models (LLMs) is an emerging yet crucial research area, aimed at alerting users to potential errors and guiding the development of more reliable LLMs. Nonetheless, the evaluators…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Shiqi Chen , Yiran Zhao , Jinghan Zhang , I-Chun Chern , Siyang Gao , Pengfei Liu , Junxian He

While existing benchmarks demonstrate the near-perfect performance of large language models (LLMs) on various tasks, this apparent saturation often obscures the need for rigorous evaluation of their reliability. In real-world deployment,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Eungyeup Kim , Chenchen Gu , Vashisth Tiwari , J. Zico Kolter

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Yu-Neng Chuang , Prathusha Kameswara Sarma , Parikshit Gopalan , John Boccio , Sara Bolouki , Xia Hu , Helen Zhou

Large language models (LLMs) are systematically overconfident: they routinely express high certainty on questions they often answer incorrectly. Existing calibration methods either require labeled validation data, degrade under distribution…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Mohamed Rissal Hedna , Jan Strich , Martin Semmann , Chris Biemann

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) may fail in giving reliable estimates of their predictive uncertainty. We take a close look into this problem, aiming to answer two questions: (1) Do PLMs learn to become calibrated in the training…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Yangyi Chen , Lifan Yuan , Ganqu Cui , Zhiyuan Liu , Heng Ji

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit strong linguistic abilities while remaining unreliable on multi-step reasoning tasks, particularly when deployed without additional training or fine-tuning. In this work, we study inference-time…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Vinay Sharma , Manish Jain

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in linguistic tasks, necessitating robust evaluation frameworks to understand their capabilities and limitations. Inspired by Feynman's principle of understanding through…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Zhiquan Tan , Lai Wei , Jindong Wang , Xing Xie , Weiran Huang

As foundation models continue to scale, the size of trained models grows exponentially, presenting significant challenges for their evaluation. Current evaluation practices involve curating increasingly large datasets to assess the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-08 Ganghua Wang , Zhaorun Chen , Bo Li , Haifeng Xu

Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from black-box models. However, how LLMs internally generate such scores remains unknown. We address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Dharshan Kumaran , Arthur Conmy , Federico Barbero , Simon Osindero , Viorica Patraucean , Petar Veličković

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate, whereby they generate plausible but inaccurate text. This phenomenon poses significant risks in critical applications, such as medicine or law, necessitating robust hallucination…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Benedict Aaron Tjandra , Muhammed Razzak , Jannik Kossen , Kunal Handa , Yarin Gal

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Chengsong Huang , Langlin Huang , Jixuan Leng , Jiacheng Liu , Jiaxin Huang

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in various perception and reasoning tasks. Despite this success, ensuring their reliability in practical deployment necessitates robust confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Yunkai Dang , Yifan Jiang , Yizhu Jiang , Anqi Chen , Wenbin Li , Yang Gao

Premature closure, or committing to a conclusion before sufficient information is available, is a recognized contributor to diagnostic error but remains underexamined in large language models (LLMs). We define LLM premature closure as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Rebecca Handler , Suhana Bedi , Nigam Shah

Psychology research has shown that humans are poor at estimating their performance on tasks, tending towards underconfidence on easy tasks and overconfidence on difficult tasks. We examine three LLMs, Llama-3-70B-instruct, Claude-3-Sonnet,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Chenjun Xu , Bingbing Wen , Bin Han , Robert Wolfe , Lucy Lu Wang , Bill Howe

We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can predict whether they will succeed on a given task and whether their predictions improve as they progress through multi-step tasks. We also investigate whether LLMs can learn from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Casey O. Barkan , Sid Black , Oliver Sourbut

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Ninad Naik

As large language models attract increasing attention and find widespread application, concurrent challenges of reliability also arise at the same time. Confidence calibration, an effective analysis method for gauging the reliability of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Chiwei Zhu , Benfeng Xu , Quan Wang , Yongdong Zhang , Zhendong Mao

Multilingual pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) are incredibly effective at Question Answering (QA), a core task in Natural Language Understanding, achieving high accuracies on several multilingual benchmarks. However, little is known…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Yahan Yang , Soham Dan , Dan Roth , Insup Lee