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Related papers: LLMs are Overconfident: Evaluating Confidence Inte…

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Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Luka Hobor , Mario Brcic , Mihael Kovac , Kristijan Poje

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been found to have difficulty knowing they do not possess certain knowledge and tend to provide specious answers in such cases. Retrieval Augmentation (RA) has been extensively studied to mitigate LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Shiyu Ni , Keping Bi , Jiafeng Guo , Xueqi Cheng

It is important for Large Language Models (LLMs) to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, distinguishing queries they can confidently answer from those that lie beyond their capabilities. Such awareness enables models to perform…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Lihu Chen , Gerard de Melo , Fabian M. Suchanek , Gaël Varoquaux

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of natural language tasks, but often exhibit overconfidence and generate plausible yet incorrect answers. This overconfidence, especially in models undergone…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Zeguan Xiao , Diyang Dou , Boya Xiong , Yun Chen , Guanhua Chen

While large language models (LLMs) improve performance by explicit reasoning, their responses are often overconfident, even though they include linguistic expressions demonstrating uncertainty. In this work, we identify what linguistic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shintaro Ozaki , Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Katsuhiko Hayashi , Taro Watanabe

The interactive nature of Large Language Models (LLMs) theoretically allows models to refine and improve their answers, yet systematic analysis of the multi-turn behavior of LLMs remains limited. In this paper, we propose the FlipFlop…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-22 Philippe Laban , Lidiya Murakhovs'ka , Caiming Xiong , Chien-Sheng Wu

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Zhiyuan Hu , Xinyang Lu , Yifei Li , Jie Fu , Junxian He , Bryan Hooi

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Yibo Li , Miao Xiong , Jiaying Wu , Bryan Hooi

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) demonstrate strong visual question answering (VQA) capabilities but are shown to hallucinate. A reliable model should perceive its knowledge boundaries-knowing what it knows and what it does not. This…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Zhikai Ding , Shiyu Ni , Keping Bi

Large language models (LLMs) often achieve strong performance on reasoning benchmarks, but final-answer accuracy alone does not show whether they faithfully execute the procedure specified in a prompt. We introduce a controlled diagnostic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Sailesh Panda , Pritam Kadasi , Abhishek Upperwal , Mayank Singh

Large language models are often not just wrong, but \emph{confidently wrong}: when they produce factually incorrect answers, they tend to verbalize overly high confidence rather than signal uncertainty. Such verbalized overconfidence can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Tianyi Zhao , Yinhan He , Wendy Zheng , Yujie Zhang , Chen Chen

In many high-risk machine learning applications it is essential for a model to indicate when it is uncertain about a prediction. While large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Evan Becker , Stefano Soatto

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in domains where errors carry high social, scientific, or safety costs. Yet standard confidence estimators, such as token likelihood, semantic similarity and multi-sample consistency,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Pengyue Yang , Jiawen Wen , Haolin Jin , Linghan Huang , Huaming Chen , Ling Chen

Self-detection for Large Language Models (LLMs) seeks to evaluate the trustworthiness of the LLM's output by leveraging its own capabilities, thereby alleviating the issue of output hallucination. However, existing self-detection approaches…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Moxin Li , Wenjie Wang , Fuli Feng , Fengbin Zhu , Qifan Wang , Tat-Seng Chua

As the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) becomes more widespread, understanding their self-evaluation of confidence in generated responses becomes increasingly important as it is integral to the reliability of the output of these models.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Abhishek Kumar , Robert Morabito , Sanzhar Umbet , Jad Kabbara , Ali Emami

Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) have revolutionized the field of AI by their ability to generate human-like text and understand images, but ensuring their reliability is crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Tobias Groot , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect answers, which can lead to risky failures in real-world applications. We study whether post-training can make a model's self-assessment explicit: when the model is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Junyu Guo , Shangding Gu , Ming Jin , Costas Spanos , Javad Lavaei

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Huanxin Sheng , Xinyi Liu , Hangfeng He , Jieyu Zhao , Jian Kang