Related papers: Efficient Generative AI Boosts Probabilistic Forec…

This study investigates the effect of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) on planetary wave (PW) activity in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT). PW activity near 95 km is derived from meteor wind data using a chain of eight SuperDARN…

Sea ice plays an important role in stabilising the Earth system. Yet, representing its dynamics remains a major challenge for models, as the underlying processes are scale-invariant and highly anisotropic. This poses a dilemma:…

AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predictions with far less computational cost compared with…

Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…

Modern deep learning techniques, which mimic traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and are derived from global atmospheric reanalysis data, have caused a significant revolution within a few years. In this new paradigm, our…

Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…

The advent of Large Weather Models (LWMs) has marked a turning point in data-driven forecasting, with many models now outperforming traditional numerical systems in the medium range. However, achieving stable, long-range autoregressive…

The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…

In this work, we propose FlowTime, a generative model for probabilistic forecasting of multivariate timeseries data. Given historical measurements and optional future covariates, we formulate forecasting as sampling from a learned…

Air pollution remains a leading global health and environmental risk, particularly in regions vulnerable to episodic air pollution spikes due to wildfires, urban haze and dust storms. Accurate forecasting of particulate matter (PM)…

Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme atmospheric events that produce significant societal and environmental impacts. Predicting these extreme events remains challenging, as their complex interactions with large-scale atmospheric and climatic…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…

Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale. This paper presents a pioneering approach to solar…

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in…

Global climate models parameterize a range of atmospheric-oceanic processes like gravity waves, clouds, moist convection, and turbulence that cannot be sufficiently resolved. These subgrid-scale closures for unresolved processes are a…

AI data-driven models (Graphcast, Pangu Weather, Fourcastnet, and SFNO) are explored for storyline-based climate attribution due to their short inference times, which can accelerate the number of events studied, and provide real time…

Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…

Machine learning (ML) has often been applied to space weather (SW) problems in recent years. SW originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the systems between the Sun and…

Accurate short-term warnings for extreme precipitation are critical for global disaster mitigation but are hindered by a persistent predictability barrier at the 2-6 hour horizon -- the "nowcasting gray zone." In this window, traditional…

The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…