Related papers: Efficient Generative AI Boosts Probabilistic Forec…
Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…
Stochastic weather generators (SWGs) are digital twins of complex weather processes and widely used in agriculture and urban design. Due to improved measuring instruments, an accurate SWG for high-frequency precipitation is now possible.…
An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction…
Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within…
Accurate seasonal runoff forecasts are critical for managing California's reservoirs and water supply for millions of its residents. Winter snow accumulation provides a strong source of predictability of snowmelt-based runoff in the spring…
We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MAtching Postprocessing (FMAP) better represents the…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel…
We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…
Vortex-split sudden stratospheric warmings (S-SSWs) are investigated by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), a spherical barotropic quasi-geostrophic (QG) model, and equilibrium statistical mechanics. The QG model reproduces well…
Generative models have the potential to transform the way we emulate Earth's changing climate. Previous generative approaches rely on weather-scale autoregression for climate emulation, but this is inherently slow for long climate horizons…
Sub-seasonal weather forecasts are becoming increasingly important for a range of socio-economic activities. However, the predictive ability of physical weather models is very limited on these time scales. We propose several post-processing…
We present a significantly-improved data-driven global weather forecasting framework using a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to forecast several basic atmospheric variables on a global grid. New developments in this framework…
Learning dynamical systems from incomplete or noisy data is inherently ill-posed, as a single observation may correspond to multiple plausible futures. While physics-based ensemble forecasting relies on perturbing initial states to capture…
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…
Accurate weather forecasting across time scales is critical for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recent data-driven methods based on deep learning have achieved significant success in the medium range, but struggle…
Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical…
Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…
Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are improving rapidly, and their forecasts are already competitive with long-established traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). To build confidence in this new methodology, it is critical…
Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional…