Related papers: TabMGP: Martingale Posterior with TabPFN

Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method…

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Graph neural networks for molecular property prediction are frequently underspecified by data and fail to generalise to new scaffolds at test time. A potential solution is Bayesian learning, which can capture our uncertainty in the model…

When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain…

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et…

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…

Modern engineering and scientific workflows often require simultaneous predictions across related tasks and fidelity levels, where high-fidelity data is scarce and expensive, while low-fidelity data is more abundant. This paper introduces…

The Bayesian transformed Gaussian process (BTG) model, proposed by Kedem and Oliviera, is a fully Bayesian counterpart to the warped Gaussian process (WGP) and marginalizes out a joint prior over input warping and kernel hyperparameters.…

Inference on modern Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often relies on a variational inference treatment, imposing violated assumptions of independence and the form of the posterior. Traditional MCMC approaches avoid these assumptions at the…

Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for…

Bayesian Neural Networks provide a principled framework for uncertainty quantification by modeling the posterior distribution of network parameters. However, exact posterior inference is computationally intractable, and widely used…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

The recently developed semi-parametric generalized linear model (SPGLM) offers more flexibility as compared to the classical GLM by including the baseline or reference distribution of the response as an additional parameter in the model.…

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…