English
Related papers

Related papers: Certainty in Uncertainty: Reasoning over Uncertain…

200 papers

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

Knowledge graph completion (KGC) can predict missing links and is crucial for real-world knowledge graphs, which widely suffer from incompleteness. KGC methods assume a knowledge graph is static, but that may lead to inaccurate prediction…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Borui Cai , Yong Xiang , Longxiang Gao , He Zhang , Yunfeng Li , Jianxin Li

Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions. Although recent conformal scores…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Vagner S. Santos , Thiago R. Ramos , Rafael Izbicki

Knowledge graph embeddings (KGE) apply machine learning methods on knowledge graphs (KGs) to provide non-classical reasoning capabilities based on similarities and analogies. The learned KG embeddings are typically used to answer queries by…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Yuqicheng Zhu , Nico Potyka , Jiarong Pan , Bo Xiong , Yunjie He , Evgeny Kharlamov , Steffen Staab

We propose a fast, non-Bayesian method for producing uncertainty scores in the output of pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs) using a data-driven interval propagating network. This interval neural network (INN) has interval valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-27 Luis Oala , Cosmas Heiß , Jan Macdonald , Maximilian März , Wojciech Samek , Gitta Kutyniok

Knowledge Graphs are pivotal for semantic data integration. The real-world data they model is often inherently uncertain. Within knowledge graphs, uncertainty manifests in three distinct levels: imprecise attribute values, probabilistic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Jingcheng Wu

Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Dahai Yu , Dingyi Zhuang , Lin Jiang , Rongchao Xu , Xinyue Ye , Yuheng Bu , Shenhao Wang , Guang Wang

There is a growing need for methods which can capture uncertainties and answer queries over graph-structured data. Two common types of uncertainty are uncertainty over the attribute values of nodes and uncertainty over the existence of…

Databases · Computer Science 2013-05-31 Walaa Eldin Moustafa , Angelika Kimmig , Amol Deshpande , Lise Getoor

Few-shot knowledge graph completion (FKGC) aims to query the unseen facts of a relation given its few-shot reference entity pairs. The side effect of noises due to the uncertainty of entities and triples may limit the few-shot learning, but…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Qian Li , Shu Guo , Yinjia Chen , Cheng Ji , Jiawei Sheng , Jianxin Li

Access to multiple predictive models trained for the same task, whether in regression or classification, is increasingly common in many applications. Aggregating their predictive uncertainties to produce reliable and efficient uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-06 Nabil Alami , Jad Zakharia , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

Deployed language models must decide not only what to answer but also when not to answer. We present UniCR, a unified framework that turns heterogeneous uncertainty evidence including sequence likelihoods, self-consistency dispersion,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Markus Oehri , Giulia Conti , Kaviraj Pather , Alexandre Rossi , Laia Serra , Adrian Parody , Rogvi Johannesen , Aviaja Petersen , Arben Krasniqi

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Tuo Wang , Adithya Kulkarni , Tyler Cody , Peter A. Beling , Yujun Yan , Dawei Zhou

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to an ad-hoc operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

The Gaussian process (GP) is a Bayesian nonparametric paradigm that is widely adopted for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in a number of safety-critical applications, including robotics, healthcare, as well as surveillance. The consistency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Georgios B. Giannakis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) over graphs arises in a number of safety-critical applications in network science. The Gaussian process (GP), as a classical Bayesian framework for UQ, has been developed to handle graph-structured data by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Georgios B. Giannakis

Knowledge graphs (KGs) play a crucial role in many applications, such as question answering, but incompleteness is an urgent issue for their broad application. Much research in knowledge graph completion (KGC) has been performed to resolve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Yinyu Lan , Shizhu He , Kang Liu , Jun Zhao

Little is known about the trustworthiness of predictions made by knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models. In this paper we take initial steps toward this direction by investigating the calibration of KGE models, or the extent to which they…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Tara Safavi , Danai Koutra , Edgar Meij

Graphical models have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous applications. However, their performance, confidence, and trustworthiness are often limited by the inherent randomness in data generation and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Chao Chen , Chenghua Guo , Rui Xu , Jiujiu Chen , Xiangwen Liao , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie , Hui Xiong , Philip Yu