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This article forecasts CPI inflation in the United Kingdom using Random Generalised Network Autoregressive (RaGNAR) Processes. More specifically, we fit Generalised Network Autoregressive (GNAR) Processes to a large set of random networks…

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

The application of polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) to the propagation of uncertainties in stochastic dynamical models is well-known to face challenging issues. The accuracy of PCEs degenerates quickly in time. Thus maintaining a…

Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate…

We propose a novel functional approach to surrogate modeling of dynamical systems with exogenous inputs. This approach, named Functional Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (F-NARX), approximates the system response based on…

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional…

Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning…

Volatility forecasts are key inputs in financial analysis. While lasso based forecasts have shown to perform well in many applications, their use to obtain volatility forecasts has not yet received much attention in the literature. Lasso…

This paper presents the use of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for forecasting the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Unlike traditional MLP-based neural networks that are often criticized for their black-box nature, KAN offers an interpretable…

Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…

This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-It\^o model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility…

Time series forecasting represents a significant and challenging task across various fields. Recently, methods based on mode decomposition have dominated the forecasting of complex time series because of the advantages of capturing local…

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…

This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both…

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…

For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and…

Despite the prevalent assumption of uniform variable importance in long-term time series forecasting models, real world applications often exhibit asymmetric causal relationships and varying data acquisition costs. Specifically,…

Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as…

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology to improve the approximation of SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) implied volatility by combining analytical structure with machine learning. The approach augments the neural-network input…