English

Forecasting VIX using interpretable Kolmogorov-Arnold networks

Machine Learning 2025-02-04 v1 Artificial Intelligence Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science

Abstract

This paper presents the use of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for forecasting the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Unlike traditional MLP-based neural networks that are often criticized for their black-box nature, KAN offers an interpretable approach via learnable spline-based activation functions and symbolification. Based on a parsimonious architecture with symbolic functions, KAN expresses a forecast of the VIX as a closed-form in terms of explanatory variables, and provide interpretable insights into key characteristics of the VIX, including mean reversion and the leverage effect. Through in-depth empirical analysis across multiple datasets and periods, we show that KANs achieve competitive forecasting performance while requiring significantly fewer parameters compared to MLP-based neural network models. Our findings demonstrate the capacity and potential of KAN as an interpretable financial time-series forecasting method.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2502.00980,
  title  = {Forecasting VIX using interpretable Kolmogorov-Arnold networks},
  author = {So-Yoon Cho and Sungchul Lee and Hyun-Gyoon Kim},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.00980},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T21:29:50.748Z