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Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

In an observational study, it is common to leverage known null effect to detect bias. One such strategy is to set aside a placebo sample -- a subset of data immune from the hypothesized cause-and-effect relationship. Existence of an effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-05 Ting Ye , Shuxiao Chen , Bo Zhang

Externally controlled trials (ECTs) are increasingly used when randomized controls are infeasible, unethical, or insufficient, including applications in rare diseases, oncology, pediatrics, and post-approval effectiveness research. Although…

The control function approach allows the researcher to identify various causal effects of interest. While powerful, it requires a strong invertibility assumption in the selection process, which limits its applicability. This paper expands…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Sukjin Han , Hiroaki Kaido

Efficacy testing is a cornerstone of clinical trials, ensuring that medical interventions achieve their intended therapeutic effects. Over the decades, a wide range of statistical methodologies have been developed to address the…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-04-13 Dhrubajyoti Ghosh , Samhita Pal

We propose a general framework for constructing powerful, sequential hypothesis tests for a large class of nonparametric testing problems. The null hypothesis for these problems is defined in an abstract form using the action of two known…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Teodora Pandeva , Patrick Forré , Aaditya Ramdas , Shubhanshu Shekhar

Active Learning (AL) aims to reduce the labeling burden by interactively selecting the most informative samples from a pool of unlabeled data. While there has been extensive research on improving AL query methods in recent years, some…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Carsten T. Lüth , Till J. Bungert , Lukas Klein , Paul F. Jaeger

Active surveillance (AS) using repeated biopsies to monitor disease progression has been a popular alternative to immediate surgical intervention in cancer care. However, a biopsy procedure is invasive and sometimes leads to severe side…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-21 Muxuan Liang , Yingqi Zhao , Daniel W. Lin , Matthew Cooperberg , Yingye Zheng

A crossover trial is an efficient trial design when there is no carry-over effect. To reduce the impact of the biological carry-over effect, a washout period is often designed. However, the carry-over effect remains an outstanding concern…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-06 Danni Shi , Ting Ye

This paper considers inference in a linear instrumental variable regression model with many potentially weak instruments, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. I first show that existing test procedures, including those that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-24 Luther Yap

The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-26 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Qi Wang , Ann Duerr , Fei Gao

In oncology, phase II or multiple expansion cohort trials are crucial for clinical development plans. This is because they aid in identifying potent agents with sufficient activity to continue development and confirm the proof of concept.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Takuya Yoshimoto , Satoru Shinoda , Kouji Yamamoto , Kouji Tahata

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker

Determining a lack of association between an outcome variable and a number of different explanatory variables is frequently necessary in order to disregard a proposed model (i.e., to confirm the lack of an association between an outcome and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-16 Harlan Campbell , Daniël Lakens

Active learning allows machine learning models to be trained using fewer labels while retaining similar performance to traditional supervised learning. An active learner selects the most informative data points, requests their labels, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Zac Pullar-Strecker , Katharina Dost , Eibe Frank , Jörg Wicker

Immune checkpoint inhibitor--based therapies often produce heterogeneous survival responses, including early risk, delayed treatment benefit, and durable long-term survival in a subset of patients. In these settings, conventional summary…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Yi-Cheng Tai , Weijing Wang , Jedd D. Wolchok , Martin T. Wells

From incorporating LLMs in education, to identifying new drugs and improving ways to charge batteries, innovators constantly try new strategies in search of better long-term outcomes for students, patients and consumers. One major…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Hyunji Alex Nam , Yash Chandak , Emma Brunskill

Inference after model selection has been an active research topic in the past few years, with numerous works offering different approaches to addressing the perils of the reuse of data. In particular, major progress has been made recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-02 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor , Asaf Weinstein