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We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…

This study proposes a method to identify treatment effects without exclusion restrictions in randomized experiments with noncompliance. Exploiting a baseline survey commonly available in randomized experiments, I decompose the…

General Economics · Economics 2021-06-03 Masayuki Sawada

Kernel-based tests provide a simple yet effective framework that use the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to design non-parametric testing procedures. In this paper we propose new theoretical tools that can be used to study the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-02 Tamara Fernández , Nicolás Rivera

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stephen Bates , Michael I. Jordan , Michael Sklar , Jake A. Soloff

Incentives in experimental design are often misaligned: experimenters design and finance experiments to seek regulatory approval, while regulators seek to maximize social-welfare. We propose a framework to resolve this conflict, wherein…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-19 Karun Adusumilli , Abhi Vemulapati

Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at national level, due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to simultaneously estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates. Recently, HIV…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-19 Le Bao , Ben Sheng , Xiaoyue Niu , Yuan Tang , Tim Brown , Peter D. Ghys , Jeff W. Eaton

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Wenxin Zhang , Aaron Hudson , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

Active inference offers a principled account of behavior as minimizing average sensory surprise over time. Applications of active inference to control problems have heretofore tended to focus on finite-horizon or discounted-surprise…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-24 Eli Sennesh , Jordan Theriault , Jan-Willem van de Meent , Lisa Feldman Barrett , Karen Quigley

An increasing number of control techniques are introduced to HIV infection problem to explore the options of helping clinical testing, optimizing drug treatments and to study the drug resistance situations. In such cases, complete/accurate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-07-17 Fei Sun , Kamran Turkoglu

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are widely considered the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of new treatments or interventions in drug development. Still, they may not be feasible in certain cases, such as with rare diseases…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Di Ran , Fanni Zhang , Sima Shahsavari , Kristine Broglio , Alasdair Henderson , Binbing Yu

Friedman test is a nonparametric method that proposed for analyzing data from a randomized complete block design as a robust alternative to parametric method and widely applied in many fields such as agriculture, biology, business,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-21 Elsayed A. H. Elamir

Mid-study design modifications are becoming increasingly accepted in confirmatory clinical trials, so long as appropriate methods are applied such that error rates are controlled. It is therefore unfortunate that the important case of…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-08 Dominic Magirr , Thomas Jaki , Franz Koenig , Martin Posch

External pilot trials of complex interventions are used to help determine if and how a confirmatory trial should be undertaken, providing estimates of parameters such as recruitment, retention and adherence rates. The decision to progress…

The identification of surrogate markers is motivated by their potential to make decisions sooner about a treatment effect. However, few methods have been developed to actually use a surrogate marker to test for a treatment effect in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-17 Layla Parast , Jay Bartroff

N-of-1 trials are within-person crossover trials allowing both personalized and population-level inference on the effect of health interventions. Using the full potential of modern technologies, multimodal N-of-1 trials can integrate…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-31 Juliana Schneider , Thomas Gärtner , Stefan Konigorski

We consider optimal regimes for algorithm-assisted human decision-making. Such regimes are decision functions of measured pre-treatment variables and, by leveraging natural treatment values, enjoy a "superoptimality" property whereby they…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-23 Mats J. Stensrud , Julien Laurendeau , Aaron L. Sarvet

Augmented block designs for unreplicated test treatments are investigated under the A- and MV-criteria with respect to control versus control, test versus test and control versus test comparisons. We derive design-independent lower bounds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-31 Rahul Mukerjee

When testing many hypotheses, often we do not have strong expectations about the directions of the effects. In some situations however, the alternative hypotheses are that the parameters lie in a certain direction or interval, and it is in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Jesse Hemerik

Out of the participants in a randomized experiment with anticipated heterogeneous treatment effects, is it possible to identify which subjects have a positive treatment effect? While subgroup analysis has received attention, claims about…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Boyan Duan , Larry Wasserman , Aaditya Ramdas

Frequently, empirical studies are plagued with missing data. When the data are missing not at random, the parameter of interest is not identifiable in general. Without additional assumptions, we can derive bounds of the parameters of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-12 Zhichao Jiang , Peng Ding