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Estimating the confidence of large language model (LLM) outputs is essential for real-world applications requiring high user trust. Black-box uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods, relying solely on model API access, have gained…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Quan Xiao , Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Nhan H Pham , Michael Glass , Junkyu Lee

Large language models (LLMs) excel in many tasks but struggle to accurately quantify uncertainty in their generated responses. This limitation makes it challenging to detect misinformation and ensure reliable decision-making. Existing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Boxuan Zhang , Ruqi Zhang

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Ninad Naik

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Gabriel Freedman , Francesca Toni

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong generative capabilities but remain vulnerable to confabulations, fluent yet unreliable outputs that vary arbitrarily even under identical prompts. Leveraging a quantum tensor network based…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Pragatheeswaran Vipulanandan , Kamal Premaratne , Dilip Sarkar

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes domains where incorrect answers result in significant consequences. Numerous approaches consider this problem, while focusing on a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Petr Sychev , Andrey Goncharov , Daniil Vyazhev , Edvard Khalafyan , Alexey Zaytsev

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong performance across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks but remain vulnerable to hallucinations, generating factually incorrect or misleading outputs. Uncertainty estimation, often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Manh Nguyen , Sunil Gupta , Hung Le

Uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for applications where safety and reliability are important. In particular, uncertainty can be used to improve the trustworthiness of LLMs by detecting factually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Alexander Nikitin , Jannik Kossen , Yarin Gal , Pekka Marttinen

Large Language Models (LLMs) are valued for their strong performance across various tasks, but they also produce inaccurate or misleading outputs. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) quantifies the model's confidence and helps users assess response…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Heydar Soudani , Evangelos Kanoulas , Faegheh Hasibi

One of the most widely used tasks for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) is Multiple-Choice Question Answering (MCQA). While open-ended question answering tasks are more challenging to evaluate, MCQA tasks are, in principle, easier to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Francesco Maria Molfese , Luca Moroni , Luca Gioffré , Alessandro Scirè , Simone Conia , Roberto Navigli

Uncertainty quantification enables users to assess the reliability of responses generated by large language models (LLMs). We present a novel Question Rephrasing technique to evaluate the input uncertainty of LLMs, which refers to the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Zizhang Chen , Pengyu Hong , Sandeep Madireddy

Large language models (LLMs) have delivered significant breakthroughs across diverse domains but can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs, posing critical challenges for real-world applications. While many recent studies focus on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential when employing large language models (LLMs) in high-risk domains such as clinical question answering (QA). In this work, we evaluate uncertainty estimation methods for clinical QA…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Alberto Testoni , Iacer Calixto

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Stef van Buuren

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

Faithful generation in large language models (LLMs) is challenged by knowledge conflicts between parametric memory and external context. Existing contrastive decoding methods tuned specifically to handle conflict often lack adaptability and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Anant Khandelwal , Manish Gupta , Puneet Agrawal

Although large language models (LLMs) are highly interactive and extendable, current approaches to ensure reliability in deployments remain mostly limited to rejecting outputs with high uncertainty in order to avoid misinformation. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 T. Duy Nguyen-Hien , Desi R. Ivanova , Yee Whye Teh , Wee Sun Lee

Confidence calibration is essential for making large language models (LLMs) reliable, yet existing training-free methods have been primarily studied under single-answer question answering. In this paper, we show that these methods break…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Yuhan Wang , Shiyu Ni , Zhikai Ding , Zihang Zhan , Yuanzi Li , Keping Bi
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