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In this study, a scalable online kernel learning framework is proposed for estimating bidirectional causal effects in systems characterized by mutual dependence and heteroskedasticity. Traditional causal inference often focuses on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-24 Masahiro Tanaka

Convenient access to observational data enables us to learn causal effects without randomized experiments. This research direction draws increasing attention in research areas such as economics, healthcare, and education. For example, we…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Miruna Oprescu , Jacob Dorn , Marah Ghoummaid , Andrew Jesson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit

Understanding user intent is essential for situational and context-aware decision-making. Motivated by a real-world scenario, this work addresses intent predictions of smart device users in the vicinity of vehicles by modeling sequential…

We consider adaptive designs for a trial involving N individuals that we follow along T time steps. We allow for the variables of one individual to depend on its past and on the past of other individuals. Our goal is to learn a mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-20 Aurelien Bibaut , Maya Petersen , Nikos Vlassis , Maria Dimakopoulou , Mark van der Laan

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

We develop a Causal-Deep Neural Network (CDNN) model trained in two stages to infer causal impact estimates at an individual unit level. Using only the pre-treatment features in stage 1 in the absence of any treatment information, we learn…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-24 Naveen Nair , Karthik S. Gurumoorthy , Dinesh Mandalapu

In randomized experiments, interactions between units might generate a treatment diffusion process. This is common when the treatment of interest is an actual object or product that can be shared among peers (e.g., flyers, booklets,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Costanza Tortú , Irene Crimaldi , Fabrizia Mealli , Laura Forastiere

Learning from demonstrations (LfD) is an efficient paradigm to train AI agents. But major issues arise when there are differences between (a) the demonstrator's own sensory input, (b) our sensors that observe the demonstrator and (c) the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Jalal Etesami , Philipp Geiger

When developing reinforcement learning agents, the standard approach is to train an agent to converge to a fixed policy that is as close to optimal as possible for a single fixed reward function. If different agent behaviour is required in…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2021-01-29 David O'Callaghan , Patrick Mannion

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison

The need to evaluate treatment effectiveness is ubiquitous in most of empirical science, and interest in flexibly investigating effect heterogeneity is growing rapidly. To do so, a multitude of model-agnostic, nonparametric meta-learners…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-13 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Recent years have seen a significant amount of interests in Sequential Recommendation (SR), which aims to understand and model the sequential user behaviors and the interactions between users and items over time. Surprisingly, despite the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Dadong Miao , Yanan Wang , Guoyu Tang , Lin Liu , Sulong Xu , Bo Long , Yun Xiao , Lingfei Wu , Yunjiang Jiang

Transformer architectures, capable of capturing sequential dependencies in the history of user interactions, have become the dominant approach in sequential recommender systems. Despite their success, such models consider sequence elements…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Artur Gimranov , Viacheslav Yusupov , Elfat Sabitov , Tatyana Matveeva , Anton Lysenko , Ruslan Israfilov , Evgeny Frolov

In many real-world application, e.g., speech recognition or sleep stage classification, data are captured over the course of time, constituting a Time-Series. Time-Series often contain temporal dependencies that cause two otherwise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-10 John Cristian Borges Gamboa

Self-attentive transformer models have recently been shown to solve the next item recommendation task very efficiently. The learned attention weights capture sequential dynamics in user behavior and generalize well. Motivated by the special…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Evgeny Frolov , Ivan Oseledets

This study presents a systematic comparison of methods for individual treatment assignment, a general problem that arises in many applications and has received significant attention from economists, computer scientists, and social…

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

Although there is now a large literature on policy evaluation and learning, much of the prior work assumes that the treatment assignment of one unit does not affect the outcome of another unit. Unfortunately, ignoring interference can lead…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-02 Yi Zhang , Kosuke Imai