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Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani

Conditional effects are commonly used measures for understanding how treatment effects vary across different groups, and are often used to target treatments/interventions to groups who benefit most. In this work we review existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiacheng Ge , Iván Díaz

Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) in industrial applications such as AdTech and healthcare presents a dual challenge: extreme class imbalance and heavy-tailed outcome distributions. While the X-Learner framework effectively…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-23 Eichi Uehara

Understanding the neural implementation of complex human behaviors is one of the major goals in neuroscience. To this end, it is crucial to find a true representation of the neural data, which is challenging due to the high complexity of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-15 Cheol Jun Cho , Edward F. Chang , Gopala K. Anumanchipalli

The need to evaluate treatment effectiveness is ubiquitous in most of empirical science, and interest in flexibly investigating effect heterogeneity is growing rapidly. To do so, a multitude of model-agnostic, nonparametric meta-learners…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mihaela van der Schaar

Recently, from the personalized medicine perspective, there has been an increased demand to identify subgroups of subjects for whom treatment is effective. Consequently, the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 Ryoma Hieda , Shintaro Yuki , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa

Machine Learning requires a large amount of training data in order to build accurate models. Sometimes the data arrives over time, requiring significant storage space and recalculating the model to account for the new data. On-line learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-07 Mohammad Abu-Shaira , Greg Speegle

We investigate the problem of machine learning-based (ML) predictive inference on individual treatment effects (ITEs). Previous work has focused primarily on developing ML-based meta-learners that can provide point estimates of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-30 Ahmed Alaa , Zaid Ahmad , Mark van der Laan

While the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a commonly used approach for treatment comparisons in observational data, the resulting estimates may be subject to bias and excessively large variance when there is lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Zhiqiang Cao , Lama Ghazi , Claudia Mastrogiacomo , Laura Forastiere , F. Perry Wilson , Fan Li

Learning heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is an important problem across many fields. Most existing methods consider the setting with a single treatment arm and a single outcome metric. However, in many real world domains, experiments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Leon Yao , Caroline Lo , Israel Nir , Sarah Tan , Ariel Evnine , Adam Lerer , Alex Peysakhovich

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

Data from observational studies (OSs) is widely available and readily obtainable yet frequently contains confounding biases. On the other hand, data derived from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) helps to reduce these biases; however, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Dong Yao , Caizhi Tang , Qing Cui , Longfei Li

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Miruna Oprescu , Jacob Dorn , Marah Ghoummaid , Andrew Jesson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data involves modeling decisions that differ from supervised learning, particularly concerning how to regularize model complexity. Previous approaches can be grouped…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Zhongyuan Liang , Lars van der Laan , Ahmed Alaa

We study clustered multitask learning in a semiparametric setting where tasks share a latent cluster structure in their target parameters but exhibit heterogeneous, potentially infinite-dimensional nuisance components. Such heterogeneity…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Hanxiao Chen , Debarghya Mukherjee

Individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) aim to improve clinical outcomes by assigning treatment based on patient-specific characteristics. However, existing methods often struggle with high-dimensional covariates, limiting accuracy,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Sungtaek Son , Eardi Lila , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are a powerful framework for learning latent representations of reduced dimensionality, while Neural ODEs excel in learning transient system dynamics. This work combines the strengths of both to generate fast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Julius Aka , Johannes Brunnemann , Jörg Eiden , Arne Speerforck , Lars Mikelsons

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) for survival outcomes has gained increasing attention, as it captures the variation in treatment efficacy across patients or subgroups in delaying disease progression. However, most existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Na Bo , Ying Ding