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This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-20 Ayush Jha , Abootaleb Shirvani , Ali Jaffri , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Frank J. Fabozzi

During the past decade, shrinkage priors have received much attention in Bayesian analysis of high-dimensional data. This paper establishes the posterior consistency for high-dimensional linear regression with a class of shrinkage priors,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-11 Qifan Song , Faming Liang

By introducing a weight function into the density power divergence, we develop a new class of robust and smooth estimators for the tail index of Pareto-type distributions, offering improved efficiency in the presence of outliers. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-25 Saida Mancer , Abdelhakim Necir , Djamel Meraghni

We consider the problem of robustly predicting as well as the best linear combination of $d$ given functions in least squares regression, and variants of this problem including constraints on the parameters of the linear combination. For…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 Jean-Yves Audibert , Olivier Catoni

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-23 João Nicolau , Paulo M. M. Rodrigues

In this paper, we propose a reduced-bias estimator of the EVI for Pareto-type tails (heavy-tailed) distributions. This is derived using the weighted least squares method. It is shown that the estimator is unbiased, consistent and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 E. Ocran , R. Minkah , K. Doku-Amponsah

For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-12-20 Carlo Marinelli , Stefano d'Addona , Svetlozar T. Rachev

We propose a new least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm for the approximation of conditional expectations in the presence of stochastic derivative weights. The algorithm can serve as a building block for solving dynamic programming equations,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-02 Christian Bender , Nikolaus Schweizer

Real-world data is laden with outlying values. The challenge for machine learning is that the learner typically has no prior knowledge of whether the feedback it receives (losses, gradients, etc.) will be heavy-tailed or not. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-16 Matthew J. Holland

Numerous robust estimators exist as alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when a completely observed ground-up loss severity sample dataset is available. However, the options for robust alternatives to MLE become…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-22 Chudamani Poudyal

We study random design linear regression with no assumptions on the distribution of the covariates and with a heavy-tailed response variable. In this distribution-free regression setting, we show that boundedness of the conditional second…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-25 Jaouad Mourtada , Tomas Vaškevičius , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

Robust optimization provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, with broad applications in finance, engineering, and operations research. In portfolio optimization, uncertainty in expected returns and covariances…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-15 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Grover Guzman , Nick Firoozye

In this paper we propose new approaches to estimating large dimensional monotone index models. This class of models has been popular in the applied and theoretical econometrics literatures as it includes discrete choice, nonparametric…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-22 Shakeeb Khan , Xiaoying Lan , Elie Tamer , Qingsong Yao

Tensor regression is an important tool for tensor data analysis, but existing works have not considered the impact of outliers, making them potentially sensitive to such data points. This paper proposes a low tubal rank robust regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Zihao Song , Jicai Liu , Heng Lian , Weihua Zhao

This paper introduces the partial Gini covariance, a novel dependence measure that addresses the challenges of high-dimensional inference with heavy-tailed errors, often encountered in fields like finance, insurance, climate, and biology.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-21 Yilin Zhang , Songshan Yang , Yunan Wu , Lan Wang

The quadratic rough Heston model provides a natural way to encode Zumbach effect in the rough volatility paradigm. We apply multi-factor approximation and use deep learning methods to build an efficient calibration procedure for this model.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-31 Mathieu Rosenbaum , Jianfei Zhang

We investigate the adaptive robust control framework for portfolio optimization and loss-based hedging under drift and volatility uncertainty. Adaptive robust problems offer many advantages but require handling a double optimization problem…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-06 Tao Chen , Michael Ludkovski

We develop an unsupervised mixture model for non-negative, skewed and heavy-tailed data, such as losses in actuarial and risk management applications. The mixture has a lognormal component, which is usually appropriate for the body of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-29 Marco Bee , Flavio Santi

We consider a regression framework where the design points are deterministic and the errors possibly non-i.i.d. and heavy-tailed (with a moment of order $p$ in $[1,2]$). Given a class of candidate regression functions, we propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Yannick Baraud , Guillaume Maillard

We propose a nonconvex estimator for joint multivariate regression and precision matrix estimation in the high dimensional regime, under sparsity constraints. A gradient descent algorithm with hard thresholding is developed to solve the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-03 Jinghui Chen , Quanquan Gu