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We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Since the long-term outcome is observed only after a long delay, it is not measured in the experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Yuhao Wang

Local decision rules are commonly understood to be more explainable, due to the local nature of the patterns involved. With numerical optimization methods such as gradient boosting, ensembles of local decision rules can gain good predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Xin Du , Subramanian Ramamoorthy , Wouter Duivesteijn , Jin Tian , Mykola Pechenizkiy

This paper examines the identification power of assumptions that formalize the notion of complementarity in the context of a nonparametric bounds analysis of treatment response. I extend the literature on partial identification via shape…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-16 Tate Twinam

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Simon Bing , Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

Proximal causal inference is a recently proposed framework for evaluating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. For point identification of causal effects, it leverages a pair of so-called treatment and outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-30 AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parameterized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-16 Jann Spiess , Guido Imbens , Amar Venugopal

We consider statistical inference under a semi-supervised setting where we have access to both a labeled dataset consisting of pairs $\{X_i, Y_i \}_{i=1}^n$ and an unlabeled dataset $\{ X_i \}_{i=n+1}^{n+N}$. We ask the question: under what…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Zichun Xu , Daniela Witten , Ali Shojaie

We study causal inference for time-to-event outcomes under right censoring in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Focusing on structural accelerated failure time models, we develop an identification and inference framework that exploits…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xinyu Zhang , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

Deep learning models achieve high predictive performance but lack intrinsic interpretability, hindering our understanding of the learned prediction behavior. Existing local explainability methods focus on associations, neglecting the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Niklas Penzel , Joachim Denzler

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

One fundamental statistical question for research areas such as precision medicine and health disparity is about discovering effect modification of treatment or exposure by observed covariates. We propose a semiparametric framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Muxuan Liang , Menggang Yu

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Rohit Bhattacharya , Daniel Malinsky , Ilya Shpitser

Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g., measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-05 Edward H. Kennedy , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Identification in errors-in-variables regression models was recently extended to wide models classes by S. Schennach (Econometrica, 2007) (S) via use of generalized functions. In this paper the problems of non- and semi- parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-30 Victoria Zinde-Walsh

In randomized controlled trials without interference, regression adjustment is widely used to enhance the efficiency of treatment effect estimation. This paper extends this efficiency principle to settings with network interference, where a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Xinyuan Fan , Chenlei Leng , Weichi Wu

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Though the topic of causal inference is typically considered in the context of classical statistical models, recent years have seen great interest in extending causal inference techniques to quantum and generalized theories. Causal…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Isaac Friend , Aleks Kissinger

While estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-18 Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ilya Shpitser
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