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Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Recent progress in Neural Causal Models (NCMs) showcased how identification and partial identification of causal effects can be automatically carried out via training of neural generative models that respect the constraints encoded in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We consider statistical inference for a finite-dimensional parameter in a regular semiparametric model under a distributed setting with blockwise missingness, where entire blocks of variables are unavailable at certain sites and sharing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Jingyue Huang , Huiyuan Wang , Yuqing Lei , Yong Chen

We introduce several methods for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding in marginal structural models; importantly we allow treatments to be discrete or continuous, static or time-varying. We consider three sensitivity models: a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Matteo Bonvini , Edward Kennedy , Valerie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

We examine the performance of efficient and AIPW estimators under two-phase sampling when the complete-data model is nearly correctly specified, in the sense that the misspecification is not reliably detectable from the data by any possible…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-20 Thomas Lumley

Asymptotic lower bounds for estimation play a fundamental role in assessing the quality of statistical procedures. In this paper we propose a framework for obtaining semi-parametric efficiency bounds for sparse high-dimensional models,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-16 Jana Jankova , Sara van de Geer

When estimating the treatment effect in an observational study, we use a semiparametric locally efficient dimension reduction approach to assess both the treatment assignment mechanism and the average responses in both treated and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-26 Trinetri Ghosh , Yanyuan Ma , Xavier de Luna

We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Vahid Balazadeh , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Rahul G. Krishnan

In this paper we propose a general series method to estimate a semiparametric partially linear varying coefficient model. We establish the consistency and \sqrtn-normality property of the estimator of the finite-dimensional parameters of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Ibrahim Ahmad , Sittisak Leelahanon , Qi Li

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

One of the most surprising and exciting discoveries in supervised learning was the benefit of overparameterization (i.e. training a very large model) to improving the optimization landscape of a problem, with minimal effect on statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-17 Rares-Darius Buhai , Yoni Halpern , Yoon Kim , Andrej Risteski , David Sontag

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference in observational studies. In recent years, use of negative controls to mitigate unmeasured confounding has gained increasing recognition and popularity. Negative controls have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-05 Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Jennifer C. Nelson , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

This paper studies identification and inference in transformation models with endogenous censoring. Many kinds of duration models, such as the accelerated failure time model, proportional hazard model, and mixed proportional hazard model,…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-05 Shosei Sakaguchi

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper develops a unified identification framework for counterfactual analysis in incomplete models characterized by support and moment restrictions. I demonstrate that identifying structural parameters and conducting counterfactual…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Lixiong Li

Establishing cause-effect relationships from observational data often relies on untestable assumptions. It is crucial to know whether, and to what extent, the conclusions drawn from non-experimental studies are robust to potential…

Multidimensional heterogeneity and endogeneity are important features of a wide class of econometric models. With control variables to correct for endogeneity, nonparametric identification of treatment effects requires strong support…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Whitney K. Newey , Sami Stouli

We consider an independence feature screening technique for identifying explanatory variables that locally contribute to the response variable in high-dimensional regression analysis. Without requiring a specific parametric form of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-31 Jinyuan Chang , Cheng Yong Tang , Yichao Wu

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison
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