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Interference bias is a major impediment to identifying causal effects in real-world settings. For example, vaccination reduces the transmission of a virus in a population such that everyone benefits -- even those who are not treated. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Michael O'Riordan , Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

In parametric, nonlinear structural models a classical sufficient condition for local identification, like Fisher (1966) and Rothenberg (1971), is that the vector of moment conditions is differentiable at the true parameter with full rank…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-28 Xiaohong Chen , Victor Chernozhukov , Sokbae Lee , Whitney K. Newey

Many statistical estimands of interest (e.g., in regression or causality) are functions of the joint distribution of multiple random variables. But in some applications, data is not available that measures all random variables on each…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Yicong Jiang , Lucas Janson

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

Existing identification and estimation methods for semiparametric sample selection models rely heavily on exclusion restrictions. However, it is difficult in practice to find a credible excluded variable that has a correlation with…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-03 Zhewen Pan , Yifan Zhang

Missing exposure information is a very common feature of many observational studies. Here we study identifiability and efficient estimation of causal effects on vector outcomes, in such cases where treatment is unconfounded but partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-04 Edward H. Kennedy

Treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) are often estimated using local regression methods. \cite{Hahn:01} demonstrated that the identification of the average treatment effect at the cutoff in RDDs relies on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-30 Weiwei Jiang , Rong J. B. Zhu

Recent approaches in causal inference have proposed estimating average causal effects that are local to some subpopulation, often for reasons of efficiency. These inferential targets are sometimes data-adaptive, in that they are dependent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-08 Peter M. Aronow

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency -…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-22 Zeyu Liu , Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Kun Zhang

We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Jianle Sun , Kun Zhang

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

We study causal representation learning, the task of inferring latent causal variables and their causal relations from high-dimensional mixtures of the variables. Prior work relies on weak supervision, in the form of counterfactual pre- and…

We systematically investigate issues due to mis-specification that arise in estimating causal effects when (treatment) interference is informed by a network available pre-intervention, i.e., in situations where the outcome of a unit may…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-22 Vishesh Karwa , Edoardo M. Airoldi

In semivarying coefficient models for longitudinal/clustered data, usually of primary interest is usually the parametric component which involves unknown constant coefficients. First, we study semiparametric efficiency bound for estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-15 Ming-Yen Cheng , Toshio Honda , Jialiang Li

I propose a locally robust semiparametric framework for estimating causal effects using the popular examiner IV design, in the presence of many examiners and possibly many covariates relative to the sample size. The key ingredient of this…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-01 Lonjezo Sithole

Stepped wedge designs (SWDs) are increasingly used to evaluate longitudinal cluster-level interventions but pose substantial challenges for valid inference. Because crossover times are randomized, intervention effects are intrinsically…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fan Xia , K. C. Gary Chan , Emily Voldal , Avi Kenny , Patrick J. Heagerty , James P. Hughes

The research described herewith is to re-visit the classical doubly robust estimation of average treatment effect by conducting a systematic study on the comparisons, in the sense of asymptotic efficiency, among all possible combinations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-01 Keli Guo , Chuyun Ye , Jun Fan , Lixing Zhu
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