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This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Many problems in robotics involve both continuous and discrete components, and modeling them together for estimation tasks has been a long standing and difficult problem. Hybrid Factor Graphs give us a mathematical framework to model these…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Varun Agrawal , Frank Dellaert

We present a Bayesian algorithm to combine optical imaging of unresolved objects from distinct epochs and observation platforms for orbit determination and tracking. By propagating the non-Gaussian uncertainties we are able to optimally…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-09-26 Michael D. Schneider , William A. Dawson

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous framework to encapsulate our knowledge and uncertainty regarding various physical quantities in a well-defined and self-contained manner. Utilising modern tools, such Bayesian models can be constructed…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2024-01-02 Julien Frison

Optimal Bayesian feature selection (OBFS) is a multivariate supervised screening method designed from the ground up for biomarker discovery. In this work, we prove that Gaussian OBFS is strongly consistent under mild conditions, and provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Ali Foroughi pour , Lori A. Dalton

The advent of Scientific Machine Learning has heralded a transformative era in scientific discovery, driving progress across diverse domains. Central to this progress is uncovering scientific laws from experimental data through symbolic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Somjit Roy , Pritam Dey , Debdeep Pati , Bani K. Mallick

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to the problem of variable selection in multiple linear regression models. In particular, we present a hierarchical setting which allows for direct specification of a-priori beliefs about the number of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-14 Konstantin Posch , Maximilian Arbeiter , Jürgen Pilz

Inductive bias refers to restrictions on the hypothesis class that enable a learning method to generalize effectively from limited data. A canonical example in control is linearity, which underpins low sample-complexity guarantees for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Zhuo Ouyang , Jixian Liu , Enrique Mallada

We study the tracking problem, namely, estimating the hidden state of an object over time, from unreliable and noisy measurements. The standard framework for the tracking problem is the generative framework, which is the basis of solutions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-01-19 Kamalika Chaudhuri , Yoav Freund , Daniel Hsu

Nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications, but the physics of most complex systems is far from being fully understood. Discovering interpretable governing equations from measurement data can help us…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Luning Sun , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Hao Sun , Jian-Xun Wang

We study an optimal transportation approach for recovering parameters in dynamical systems with a single smoothly varying attractor. We assume that the data is not sufficient for estimating time derivatives of state variables but enough to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-04-12 Yunan Yang , Levon Nurbekyan , Elisa Negrini , Robert Martin , Mirjeta Pasha

The Bayesian paradigm offers principled tools for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, but its reliance on a probabilistic model for all parameters can hinder the incorporation of complex structural constraints. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Kaizheng Wang

This work presents a novel and effective method for fitting multidimensional ellipsoids to scattered data in the contamination of noise and outliers. We approach the problem as a Bayesian parameter estimate process and maximize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Zhao Mingyang , Jia Xiaohong , Ma Lei , Shi Yuke , Jiang Jingen , Li Qizhai , Yan Dong-Ming , Huang Tiejun

Many network analysis and graph learning techniques are based on models of random walks which require to infer transition matrices that formalize the underlying stochastic process in an observed graph. For weighted graphs, it is common to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Vincenzo Perri , Luka V. Petrović , Ingo Scholtes

Biological systems commonly exhibit complex spatiotemporal patterns whose underlying generative mechanisms pose a significant analytical challenge. Traditional approaches to spatiodynamic inference rely on dimensionality reduction through…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-01 Jun Won Park , Kangyu Zhao , Sanket Rane

We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Junxiong Jia , Jigen Peng , Jinghuai Gao

Symmetries are ubiquitous across all kinds of objects, whether in nature or in man-made creations. While these symmetries may seem intuitive to the human eye, detecting them with a machine is nontrivial due to the vast search space.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Jihyeon Je , Jiayi Liu , Guandao Yang , Boyang Deng , Shengqu Cai , Gordon Wetzstein , Or Litany , Leonidas Guibas

Traditional statistical analysis requires that the analysis process and data are independent. By contrast, the new field of adaptive data analysis hopes to understand and provide algorithms and accuracy guarantees for research as it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-22 Sam Elder

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting and characterising the signal from discrete objects embedded in a diffuse background. The approach centres around the evaluation of the posterior distribution for the parameters of the discrete…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 M. P. Hobson , C. McLachlan