Related papers: A Compositional Approach to Modelling Cause-specif…
Mortality forecasting is crucial for demographic planning and actuarial studies, especially for projecting population ageing and longevity risk. Classical approaches largely rely on extrapolative methods, such as the Lee-Carter (LC) model,…
We introduce a compositional power transformation, known as an {\alpha}-transformation, to model and forecast a time series of life-table death counts, possibly with zero counts observed at older ages. As a generalisation of the isometric…
We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…
Age-specific life-table death counts observed over time are examples of densities. Non-negativity and summability are constraints that sometimes require modifications of standard linear statistical methods. The centered log-ratio…
In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…
We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…
A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…
The growing use of high-throughput sequencing (HTS) has enabled the large-scale production of compositional count data, driving progress in microbiome research. However, such count data are often high-dimensional, over-dispersed, and…
In low-resource settings where vital registration of death is not routine it is often of critical interest to determine and study the cause of death (COD) for individuals and the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for populations.…
In recent years, improvements in all-cause mortality rates and life expectancies for males and females in England and Wales have slowed down. In this paper, cause-specific mortality data for England and Wales from 2001 to 2018 are used to…
Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…
In most cases, mortality is analysed considering summary indicators (e.~g. $e_0$ or $e^{\dagger}_0$) that either focus on a specific mortality component or pool all component-specific information in one measure. This can be a limitation,…
In compositional data analysis an observation is a vector containing non-negative values, only the relative sizes of which are considered to be of interest. Without loss of generality, a compositional vector can be taken to be a vector of…
Many real-world systems can be usefully represented as sets of interacting components. Examples include computational systems, such as query processors and compilers, natural systems, such as cells and ecosystems, and social systems, such…
Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…
Compositional regression models with a real-valued response variable can generally be specified as log-contrast models subject to a zero-sum constraint on the model coefficients. This formulation emphasises the relative information conveyed…
Multivariate functional data that are cross-sectionally compositional data are attracting increasing interest in the statistical modeling literature, a major example being trajectories over time of compositions derived from cause-specific…
A major challenge of climate change adaptation is to assess the effect of changing weather on human health. In spite of an increasing literature on the weather-related health subject, many aspect of the relationship are not known, limiting…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…
Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a population. We develop a hierarchical probabilistic framework…