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Black-box variational inference (BBVI) now sees widespread use in machine learning and statistics as a fast yet flexible alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, stochastic optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-22 Manushi Welandawe , Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari , Jonathan H. Huggins

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is constantly in search of more expressive and efficient algorithms to accurately infer the parameters of complex simulation models. In line with this goal, we present consistency models for posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Marvin Schmitt , Valentin Pratz , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T Radev

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alexander Shen , Mikael Kuusela

Flagship near-future surveys targeting $10^8-10^9$ galaxies across cosmic time will soon reveal the processes of galaxy assembly in unprecedented resolution. This creates an immediate computational challenge on effective analyses of the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-03 Bingjie Wang , Joel Leja , V. Ashley Villar , Joshua S. Speagle

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables cosmological parameter estimation when closed-form likelihoods or models are unavailable. However, SBI relies on machine learning for neural compression and density estimation. This requires large…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-29 Alex A. Saoulis , Davide Piras , Niall Jeffrey , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Ana M. G. Ferreira , Benjamin Joachimi

Credible microscopic traffic simulation requires car-following models that capture both the average response and the substantial variability observed across drivers and situations. However, most data-driven calibrations remain…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-06 Menglin Kong , Chengyuan Zhang , Lijun Sun

Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer models of the likelihood-to-evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Giulio Isacchini , Natanael Spisak , Armita Nourmohammad , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak

Black-box optimization is often encountered for decision-making in complex systems management, where the knowledge of system is limited. Under these circumstances, it is essential to balance the utilization of new information with…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-15 Teng Lian , Jian-Qiang Hu , Yuhang Wu , Zeyu Zheng

Accurate calibration of sensor extrinsic parameters for ground robotic systems (i.e., relative poses) is crucial for ensuring spatial alignment and achieving high-performance perception. However, existing calibration methods typically…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Jiang Wang , Yaozhong Kang , Linya Fu , Kazuhiro Nakadai , He Kong

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables Bayesian analysis when the likelihood is intractable but model simulations are available. Recent advances in statistics and machine learning, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

Explaining and reasoning about processes which underlie observed black-box phenomena enables the discovery of causal mechanisms, derivation of suitable abstract representations and the formulation of more robust predictions. We propose to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-27 Svetlin Penkov , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

Actively planning sensor views during object reconstruction is crucial for autonomous mobile robots. An effective method should be able to strike a balance between accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a seamless integration of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Dongyu Yan , Jianheng Liu , Fengyu Quan , Haoyao Chen , Mengmeng Fu

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Guy Moss , Leah Sophie Muhle , Reinhard Drews , Jakob H. Macke , Cornelius Schröder

Black-box policy optimization is a class of reinforcement learning algorithms that explores and updates the policies at the parameter level. This class of algorithms is widely applied in robotics with movement primitives or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-22 Marius Memmel , Puze Liu , Davide Tateo , Jan Peters

Simulation based inference (SBI) methods enable the estimation of posterior distributions when the likelihood function is intractable, but where model simulation is feasible. Popular neural approaches to SBI are the neural posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-23 Xiaoyu Wang , Ryan P. Kelly , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Black-box optimization algorithms have been widely used in various machine learning problems, including reinforcement learning and prompt fine-tuning. However, directly optimizing the training loss value, as commonly done in existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Feiyang Ye , Yueming Lyu , Xuehao Wang , Masashi Sugiyama , Yu Zhang , Ivor Tsang

Neural networks are being extensively used for modelling data, especially in the case where no likelihood can be formulated. Although in the case of X-ray spectral fitting, the likelihood is known, we aim to investigate the neural networks…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-22 Didier Barret , Simon Dupourqué

We present a new algorithm ASEBO for optimizing high-dimensional blackbox functions. ASEBO adapts to the geometry of the function and learns optimal sets of sensing directions, which are used to probe it, on-the-fly. It addresses the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-06-06 Krzysztof Choromanski , Aldo Pacchiano , Jack Parker-Holder , Yunhao Tang

Many software engineering tasks, such as testing, and anomaly detection can benefit from the ability to infer a behavioral model of the software.Most existing inference approaches assume access to code to collect execution sequences. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Foozhan Ataiefard , Mohammad Jafar Mashhadi , Hadi Hemmati , Niel Walkinshaw