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When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others…

Accurately estimating semantic aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in large language models (LLMs) is particularly challenging in free-form question answering (QA), where obtaining stable estimates often requires many expensive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Ji Won Park , Kyunghyun Cho

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-03-21 Pascal Pernot

Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a powerful data analysis tool that is easy to learn because of its black-box nature. Yet this very nature also makes it difficult to quantify confidence in predictions extracted from ML models, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Paul Patrone , Anthony Kearsley

Large language models (LLMs) have delivered significant breakthroughs across diverse domains but can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs, posing critical challenges for real-world applications. While many recent studies focus on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Hsiu-Yuan Huang , Yutong Yang , Zhaoxi Zhang , Sanwoo Lee , Yunfang Wu

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Yikun Wang , Rui Zheng , Liang Ding , Qi Zhang , Dahua Lin , Dacheng Tao

Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Gabriel Freedman , Francesca Toni

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xunzhi Wang , Zhuowei Zhang , Gaonan Chen , Qiongyu Li , Bitong Luo , Zhixin Han , Haotian Wang , Zhiyu li , Hang Gao , Mengting Hu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Sree Harsha Tanneru , Chirag Agarwal , Himabindu Lakkaraju

Step-by-step decision planning with large language models (LLMs) is gaining attention in AI agent development. This paper focuses on decision planning with uncertainty estimation to address the hallucination problem in language models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Walter Talbott , Jian Zhang

The changesets (or patches) that fix open source software vulnerabilities form critical datasets for various machine learning security-enhancing applications, such as automated vulnerability patching and silent fix detection. These patch…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Hui Chen , Yunhua Zhao , Kostadin Damevski

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Large Language Models have emerged as prime candidates to tackle misinformation mitigation. However, existing approaches struggle with hallucinations and overconfident predictions. We propose an uncertainty quantification framework that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Mauricio Rivera , Jean-François Godbout , Reihaneh Rabbany , Kellin Pelrine

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA), but their inherent unreliability, such as hallucination and overconfidence, limits their application in high-risk domains. To address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Guang Yang , Xinyang Liu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

In recent years, large-scale language models (LLMs) have gained attention for their impressive text generation capabilities. However, these models often face the challenge of "hallucination," which undermines their reliability. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yuchen Yang , Houqiang Li , Yanfeng Wang , Yu Wang

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate and generate non-factual outputs which can undermine user trust. Traditional methods to directly mitigate hallucinations, such as representation editing and contrastive decoding, often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Prasenjit Dey , Srujana Merugu , Sivaramakrishnan Kaveri

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an essential step in computational model validation because assessment of the model accuracy requires a concrete, quantifiable measure of uncertainty in the model predictions. The concept of UQ in the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-24 Xu Wu , Ziyu Xie , Farah Alsafadi , Tomasz Kozlowski