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To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account…

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Ranganath Krishnan , Piyush Khanna , Omesh Tickoo

As large language models are increasingly deployed for clinical text, ensuring they can reliably signal their own uncertainty becomes critical. Most existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are designed for open-domain generation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Bushi Xiao , Sarvesh Soni , Daisy Zhe Wang

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly being integrated into computational social science research, yet their blackboxed training and designed stochastic elements in inference pose unique challenges for scientific inquiry. This article…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Bolun Zhang , Linzhuo Li , Yunqi Chen , Qinlin Zhao , Zihan Zhu , Xiaoyuan Yi , Xing Xie

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Yu-Neng Chuang , Leisheng Yu , Guanchu Wang , Lizhe Zhang , Zirui Liu , Xuanting Cai , Yang Sui , Vladimir Braverman , Xia Hu

This paper provides a tutorial about uncertainty quantification (UQ) for those who have no background but are interested in learning more in this area. It exploits many very simple examples, which are understandable to undergraduates, to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Nan Chen , Stephen Wiggins , Marios Andreou

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-11-02 Dae Heun Koh , Aashwin Mishra , Kazuhiro Terao

Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Bairu Hou , Yujian Liu , Kaizhi Qian , Jacob Andreas , Shiyu Chang , Yang Zhang

Large molecular representation models pre-trained on massive unlabeled data have shown great success in predicting molecular properties. However, these models may tend to overfit the fine-tuning data, resulting in over-confident predictions…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-04-18 Yinghao Li , Lingkai Kong , Yuanqi Du , Yue Yu , Yuchen Zhuang , Wenhao Mu , Chao Zhang

Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Zhiting Mei , Tenny Yin , Micah Baker , Ola Shorinwa , Anirudha Majumdar

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucination, particularly in long-form generations. A promising direction to mitigate hallucination is to teach LLMs to express uncertainty explicitly when they lack sufficient knowledge. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Ruihan Yang , Caiqi Zhang , Zhisong Zhang , Xinting Huang , Dong Yu , Nigel Collier , Deqing Yang

It is important for Large Language Models (LLMs) to be aware of the boundary of their knowledge, distinguishing queries they can confidently answer from those that lie beyond their capabilities. Such awareness enables models to perform…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Lihu Chen , Gerard de Melo , Fabian M. Suchanek , Gaël Varoquaux

Guaranteeing the correctness and factuality of language model (LM) outputs is a major open problem. In this work, we propose conformal factuality, a framework that can ensure high probability correctness guarantees for LMs by connecting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Christopher Mohri , Tatsunori Hashimoto

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Xu Wu , Koroush Shirvan , Tomasz Kozlowski

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong generative capabilities but remain vulnerable to confabulations, fluent yet unreliable outputs that vary arbitrarily even under identical prompts. Leveraging a quantum tensor network based…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Pragatheeswaran Vipulanandan , Kamal Premaratne , Dilip Sarkar

Ensuring large language model (LLM) reliability requires distinguishing objective unsolvability (inherent contradictions) from subjective capability limitations (tasks exceeding model competence). Current LLMs often conflate these…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Dengyun Peng , Qiguang Chen , Bofei Liu , Jiannan Guan , Libo Qin , Zheng Yan , Jinhao Liu , Jianshu Zhang , Wanxiang Che

Trustworthy deployment of ML models requires a proper measure of uncertainty, especially in safety-critical applications. We focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for classification problems via two avenues -- prediction sets using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-08 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanjing Wang , Qiang Ji