Related papers: Multi-objective Bayesian optimization for blocking…
The distribution of block maxima of sequences of independent and identically-distributed random variables is used to model extreme values in many disciplines. The traditional extreme value (EV) theory derives a closed-form expression for…
The conventional use of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to model block maxima may be inappropriate when extremes are actually structured into multiple heterogeneous groups. In this work, we propose a novel approach for…
This paper introduces a novel sub-sampling block maxima technique to model and characterize environmental extreme risks. We examine the relationships between block size and block maxima statistics derived from the Gaussian and generalized…
Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…
Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…
The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions…
Classical extreme value statistics consists of two fundamental approaches: the block maxima (BM) method and the peak-over-threshold (POT) approach. It seems to be general consensus among researchers in the field that the POT method makes…
Multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) provides a principled framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions with multiple objectives. However, existing MOBO methods often struggle with coverage, scalability with respect to the…
Impact assessment of natural hazards requires the consideration of both extreme and non-extreme events. Extensive research has been conducted on the joint modeling of bulk and tail in univariate settings; however, the corresponding body of…
Modelling block maxima using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a classical and widely used method for studying univariate extremes. It allows for theoretically motivated estimation of return levels, including extrapolation…
Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…
A critical problem in extreme value theory (EVT) is the estimation of parameters for the limit probability distributions. Block maxima (BM), an approach in EVT that seeks estimates of parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution…
Expensive multi-objective optimization problems can be found in many real-world applications, where their objective function evaluations involve expensive computations or physical experiments. It is desirable to obtain an approximate Pareto…
The extreme value index is a fundamental parameter in univariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT). It captures the tail behavior of a distribution and is central in the extrapolation beyond observed data. Among other semi-parametric methods (such…
Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…
The block maxima (BM) approach in extreme value analysis fits a sample of block maxima to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We consider all potential blocks from a sample, which leads to the All Block Maxima (ABM) estimator.…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
The block maxima approach, which consists of dividing a series of observations into equal sized blocks to extract the block maxima, is commonly used for identifying and modelling extreme events using the generalized extreme value (GEV)…
Analysis of the rare and extreme values through statistical modeling is an important issue in economical crises, climate forecasting, and risk management of financial portfolios. Extreme value theory provides the probability models needed…
Optimizing multiple, non-preferential objectives for mixed-variable, expensive black-box problems is important in many areas of engineering and science. The expensive, noisy, black-box nature of these problems makes them ideal candidates…