Related papers: Travel Bans vs. Other Disease Mitigation Measures:…
We present a detailed set-based analysis of the well-known SIR and SEIR epidemic models subjected to hard caps on the proportion of infective individuals, and bounds on the allowable intervention strategies, such as social distancing,…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
Most real networks are characterized by connectivity patterns that evolve in time following complex, non-Markovian, dynamics. Here we investigate the impact of this ubiquitous feature by studying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
This work is concerned with epidemiological models defined on networks, which highlight the prominent role of the social contact network of a given population in the spread of infectious diseases. In particular, we address the modelling and…
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to health and…
We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a regular random graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an…
A method for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission is developed for a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the…
In their response to the COVID-19 outbreak, governments face the dilemma to balance public health and economy. Mobility plays a central role in this dilemma because the movement of people enables both economic activity and virus spread. We…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models for the spread of infectious diseases is the SIR…
We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity pattern. In SIR-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global…
This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an…
The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…
Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is…
Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, as witnessed during outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) or SARS pandemics. One way to stop spreading over the airline network are travel…
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…
This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…
We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…