Related papers: Quantifying Very Extreme Precipitation and Tempera…
A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…
Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…
Earth system models (ESMs) are the principal tools used in climate science to generate future climate projections under various atmospheric emissions scenarios on a global or regional scale. Generative deep learning approaches are suitable…
Extreme weather events have an enormous impact on society and are expected to become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this context, resilience planning becomes crucial for risk mitigation and coping with these extreme…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…
The summer of 2023 was the second hottest on record, with numerous extreme heatwaves across the globe. Using the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator machine learning (ML) weather model, we generated a massive ensemble of 7,424 weather…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…
Precipitation forecasts are less accurate compared to other meteorological fields because several key processes affecting precipitation distribution and intensity occur below the resolved scale of global weather prediction models. This…
Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate…
Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Motivated by the EVA2025 data challenge, where we participated as the team DesiBoys, we propose a regression strategy within the framework of regular variation to estimate the occurrences and intensities of high precipitation extremes…
Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…