Related papers: Prior-Free Blackwell
Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action…
We present a message passing approach to Expected Free Energy (EFE) minimization on factor graphs, based on the theory introduced in arXiv:2504.14898. By reformulating EFE minimization as Variational Free Energy minimization with epistemic…
This study extends Blackwell's (1953) comparison of information to a sequential social learning model, where agents make decisions sequentially based on both private signals and the observed actions of others. In this context, we introduce…
Data-driven control uses a past signal trajectory to characterise the input-output behaviour of a system. Willems' lemma provides a data-based prediction model allowing a control designer to bypass the step of identifying a state-space or…
I study whether and which expert incentives can be provided at what cost when the states of the world become non-contractible, but there is some noisy observation about the states that can be contracted upon. A principal hires an agent to…
Electricity price forecasting approaches generally fall into two categories: data-driven models, which learn from historical patterns, or fundamental models, which simulate market mechanisms. We propose a novel and highly efficient…
We consider the computation of model-free bounds for multi-asset options in a setting that combines dependence uncertainty with additional information on the dependence structure. More specifically, we consider the setting where the…
Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where, for some purposes, constraints imposed by market institutions dominate intelligent agent behavior. We use data…
Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…
We consider an extension of the setting of label ranking, in which the learner is allowed to make predictions in the form of partial instead of total orders. Predictions of that kind are interpreted as a partial abstention: If the learner…
Nowadays, many decisions are made using predictive models built on historical data.Predictive models may systematically discriminate groups of people even if the computing process is fair and well-intentioned. Discrimination-aware data…
We introduce a nonparametric prior on the conditional distribution of a (univariate or multivariate) response given a set of predictors. The prior is constructed in the form of a two-stage generative procedure, which in the first stage…
We present a general framework for classifying partially observed dynamical systems based on the idea of learning in the model space. In contrast to the existing approaches using model point estimates to represent individual data items, we…
We consider a model of unreliable or crowdsourced data where there is an underlying set of $n$ binary variables, each evaluator contributes a (possibly unreliable or adversarial) estimate of the values of some subset of $r$ of the…
We study mechanism design in environments where agents have private preferences and private information about a common payoff-relevant state. In such settings with multi-dimensional types, standard mechanisms fail to implement efficient…
The aim of this paper is to propose a new data-driven control scheme for multi-input-multi-output linear time-invariant systems whose system model are completely unknown. Using a non-minimal input-output realization, the proposed method can…
Conformal prediction is a general distribution-free approach for constructing prediction sets combined with any machine learning algorithm that achieve valid marginal or conditional coverage in finite samples. Ordinal classification is…
We give a distribution-free testing algorithm for decision lists with $\tilde{O}(n^{11/12}/\varepsilon^3)$ queries. This is the first sublinear algorithm for this problem, which shows that, unlike halfspaces, testing is strictly easier than…
A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…
A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is…