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Our objective is to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for a time-to-event outcome subject to right-censoring with guaranteed coverage. Inspired by modern conformal inference, our approach avoids the need for a well-specified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Rebecca Farina , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In large observational studies, the case-cohort design is commonly used to reduce the cost associated with covariate measurement. For survival outcomes, literature has suggested that the restricted mean survival time (RMST) be a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Andy Ni , Wei-En Lu , Bo Lu

Estimating individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is crucial for tailoring interventions in precision medicine. Typical ITR estimation methods rely on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) to guide treatment assignments. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-20 Peng Wu , Qing Jiang , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

Cluster randomization trials commonly employ multiple endpoints. When a single summary of treatment effects across endpoints is of primary interest, global hypothesis testing/effect estimation methods represent a common analysis strategy.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 E. Davies Smith , V. Jairath , G. Zou

Survival regression aims to predict the time when an event of interest will take place, typically a death or a failure. A fully parametric method [18] is proposed to estimate the survival function as a mixture of individual parametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Qinxin Wang , Jiayuan Huang , Junhui Li , Jiaming Liu

We extend recently proposed design-based capture-recapture (CRC) methods for prevalence estimation among registry participants, in order to enhance treatment effect evaluation among a trial-eligible target population. The so-called ``anchor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Lin Ge , Yuzi Zhang , Lance A. Waller , Robert H. Lyles

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are studies where treatment is randomized at the cluster level but outcomes are typically collected at the individual level. When CRTs are employed in pragmatic settings, baseline population characteristics…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-22 Mary M. Ryan , Denise Esserman , Fan Li

Randomly censored survival data are frequently encountered in applied sciences including biomedical or reliability applications and clinical trial analyses. Testing the significance of statistical hypotheses is crucial in such analyses to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-08 Abhik Ghosh , Ayanendranath Basu , Leandro Pardo

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-18 Zilong Wang , Turgay Ayer , Shihao Yang

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are commonly used to analyze clustered data, but when the number of clusters is small to moderate, standard statistical tests may produce elevated type I error rates. Small-sample corrections have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Hongxiang Qiu , Andrea J. Cook , Jennifer F. Bobb

Popular parametric and semiparametric hazards regression models for clustered survival data are inappropriate and inadequate when the unknown effects of different covariates and clustering are complex. This calls for a flexible modeling…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Piyali Basak , Antonio R. Linero , Debajyoti SInha , Stuart Lipsitz

In neoadjuvant trials on early-stage breast cancer, patients are usually randomized into a control group and a treatment group with an additional target therapy. Early efficacy of the new regimen is assessed via the binary pathological…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-04 Xiaoqing Tan , Judah Abberbock , Priya Rastogi , Gong Tang

For studying or reducing the bias of functionals of the Kaplan-Meier survival estimator, the jackknifing approach of Stute and Wang (1994) is natural. We have studied the behavior of the jackknife estimate of bias under different…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-17 Md Hasinur Rahaman Khan , J. Ewart H. Shaw

Survival analysis of right censored data arises often in many areas of research including medical research. Effect of covariates (and their interactions) on survival distribution can be studied through existing methods which requires to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Madan Gopal Kundu , Samiran Ghosh

The distribution-free method of conformal prediction (Vovk et al, 2005) has gained considerable attention in computer science, machine learning, and statistics. Candes et al. (2023) extended this method to right-censored survival data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Jing Qin , Jin Piao , Jing Ning , Yu Shen

To draw real-world evidence about the comparative effectiveness of multiple time-varying treatments on patient survival, we develop a joint marginal structural survival model and a novel weighting strategy to account for time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Himanshu Joshi , Erick Scott , Fan Li

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from right-censored survival data is critical in high-stakes applications such as precision medicine and individualized policy-making. Yet, the survival analysis setting poses unique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Shahriar Noroozizadeh , Xiaobin Shen , Jeremy C. Weiss , George H. Chen

Controlled experiments are widely used in many applications to investigate the causal relationship between input factors and experimental outcomes. A completely randomized design is usually used to randomly assign treatment levels to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yiou Li , Lulu Kang , Xiao Huang

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Emil Javurek , Stefan Feuerriegel

A targeted learning (TL) framework is developed to estimate the difference in the restricted mean survival time (RMST) for a clinical trial with time-to-event outcomes. The approach starts by defining the target estimand as the RMST…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Man Jin , Yixin Fang