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We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Emmanuel C. Chukwu , Rianne M. Schouten , Monique Tabak , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Counterfactuals are central in causal human reasoning and the scientific discovery process. The uplift, also called conditional average treatment effect, measures the causal effect of some action, or treatment, on the outcome of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Denis Mercier , Jeevan Shrestha , Gianluca Bontempi

The adoption of increasingly complex deep models has fueled an urgent need for insight into how these models make predictions. Counterfactual explanations form a powerful tool for providing actionable explanations to practitioners.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Paraskevas Pegios , Aasa Feragen , Andreas Abildtrup Hansen , Georgios Arvanitidis

Offline data are both valuable and practical resources for teaching robots complex behaviors. Ideally, learning agents should not be constrained by the scarcity of available demonstrations, but rather generalize beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Núria Armengol Urpí , Marco Bagatella , Marin Vlastelica , Georg Martius

We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

We congratulate Nabi et al. (2022) on their impressive and insightful paper, which illustrates the benefits of using causal/counterfactual perspectives and tools in missing data problems. This paper represents an important approach to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Alex W. Levis , Edward H. Kennedy

Nowadays, deep vision models are being widely deployed in safety-critical applications, e.g., autonomous driving, and explainability of such models is becoming a pressing concern. Among explanation methods, counterfactual explanations aim…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Mehdi Zemni , Mickaël Chen , Éloi Zablocki , Hédi Ben-Younes , Patrick Pérez , Matthieu Cord

We posit that autoregressive flow models are well-suited to performing a range of causal inference tasks - ranging from causal discovery to making interventional and counterfactual predictions. In particular, we exploit the fact that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Ricardo Pio Monti , Ilyes Khemakhem , Aapo Hyvarinen

In many applications, it is important to be able to explain the decisions of machine learning systems. An increasingly popular approach has been to seek to provide \emph{counterfactual instance explanations}. These specify close possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Adam White , Artur d'Avila Garcez

The inverse optimal transport problem is to find the underlying cost function from the knowledge of optimal transport plans. While this amounts to solving a linear inverse problem, in this work we will be concerned with the nonlinear…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Alberto González-Sanz , Michel Groppe , Axel Munk

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

We present a method for neural network interpretability by combining feature attribution with counterfactual explanations to generate attribution maps that highlight the most discriminative features between pairs of classes. We show that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Nils Eckstein , Alexander S. Bates , Gregory S. X. E. Jefferis , Jan Funke

Counterfactuals answer questions of what would have been observed under altered circumstances and can therefore offer valuable insights. Whereas the classical interventional interpretation of counterfactuals has been studied extensively,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Julius von Kügelgen , Bernhard Schölkopf , Michael Muehlebach

Identifiability is a desirable property of a statistical model: it implies that the true model parameters may be estimated to any desired precision, given sufficient computational resources and data. We study identifiability in the context…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-09 Geoffrey Roeder , Luke Metz , Diederik P. Kingma

Contrastive pretraining can substantially increase model generalisation and downstream performance. However, the quality of the learned representations is highly dependent on the data augmentation strategy applied to generate positive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Mélanie Roschewitz , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Tian Xia , Galvin Khara , Ben Glocker

The Ladder of Causation describes three qualitatively different types of activities an agent may be interested in engaging in, namely, seeing (observational), doing (interventional), and imagining (counterfactual) (Pearl and Mackenzie,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-14 Juan D Correa , Sanghack Lee , Elias Bareinboim

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Ngoc Bui , Duy Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Thong Nguyen , Truc-My Nguyen

We hypothesize that optimal system responses emerge from adaptive strategies grounded in causal and counterfactual knowledge. Counterfactual inference allows us to create hypothetical scenarios to examine the effects of alternative system…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Donghuo Zeng , Roberto Legaspi , Yuewen Sun , Xinshuai Dong , Kazushi Ikeda , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang