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In this expository paper, we consider the problem of causal inference and efficient estimation for the counterfactual survivor function. This problem has previously been considered in the literature in several papers, each relying on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Martin Haugh , Raghav Singal

Counterfactual examples have proven to be valuable in the field of natural language processing (NLP) for both evaluating and improving the robustness of language models to spurious correlations in datasets. Despite their demonstrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Tiep Le , Vasudev Lal , Phillip Howard

Due to the increasing use of Machine Learning models in high stakes decision making settings, it has become increasingly important to have tools to understand how models arrive at decisions. Assuming a trained Supervised Classification…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-20 Emilio Carrizosa , Jasone Ramírez-Ayerbe , Dolores Romero Morales

Counterfactuals are a popular framework for interpreting machine learning predictions. These what if explanations are notoriously challenging to create for computer vision models: standard gradient-based methods are prone to produce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-23 Jeremy Goldwasser , Giles Hooker

Counterfactual inference provides a mathematical framework for reasoning about hypothetical outcomes under alternative interventions, bridging causal reasoning and predictive modeling. We present a counterfactual inference framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Jingya Cheng , Alaleh Azhir , Jiazi Tian , Hossein Estiri

We study counterfactual classification as a new tool for decision-making under hypothetical (contrary to fact) scenarios. We propose a doubly-robust nonparametric estimator for a general counterfactual classifier, where we can incorporate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Kwangho Kim , Edward H. Kennedy , José R. Zubizarreta

This work showcases a new approach for causal discovery by leveraging user experiments and recent advances in photo-realistic image editing, demonstrating a potential of identifying causal factors and understanding complex systems…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-23 Tao Li

We present methods for causally interpretable meta-analyses that combine information from multiple randomized trials to estimate potential (counterfactual) outcome means and average treatment effects in a target population. We consider…

The key to multi-label image classification (MLC) is to improve model performance by leveraging label correlations. Unfortunately, it has been shown that overemphasizing co-occurrence relationships can cause the overfitting issue of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Ming-Kun Xie , Jia-Hao Xiao , Pei Peng , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama , Sheng-Jun Huang

Machine Learning models are increasingly used in businesses to detect faults and anomalies in complex systems. In this work, we take this approach a step further: beyond merely detecting anomalies, we aim to identify the optimal control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-15 Emilio Carrizosa , Martina Fischetti , Roshell Haaker , Juan Miguel Morales

To increase the adoption of counterfactual explanations in practice, several criteria that these should adhere to have been put forward in the literature. We propose counterfactual explanations using optimization with constraint learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Donato Maragno , Tabea E. Röber , Ilker Birbil

We propose a novel training regime termed counterfactual training that leverages counterfactual explanations to increase the explanatory capacity of models. Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a popular post-hoc explanation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Patrick Altmeyer , Aleksander Buszydlik , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

Rectified flow (Liu et al., 2022; Liu, 2022; Wu et al., 2023) is a method for defining a transport map between two distributions, and enjoys popularity in machine learning, although theoretical results supporting the validity of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Gonzalo Mena , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Larry Wasserman

Data-driven methods that detect anomalies in times series data are ubiquitous in practice, but they are in general unable to provide helpful explanations for the predictions they make. In this work we propose a model-agnostic algorithm that…

Consider the case where causal relations among variables can be described as a Gaussian linear structural equation model. This paper deals with the problem of clarifying how the variance of a response variable would have changed if a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Zhihong Cai , Manabu Kuroki

A representative researcher has repeated opportunities for empirical research. To process findings, she must impose an "identifying assumption." She conducts research when the assumption is sufficiently plausible (taking into account both…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-01-17 Andrew Ellis , Ran Spiegler

This paper develops a unified identification framework for counterfactual analysis in incomplete models characterized by support and moment restrictions. I demonstrate that identifying structural parameters and conducting counterfactual…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Lixiong Li

In this paper, we develop a unified approach to study partial identification of a finite-dimensional parameter defined by a general moment model with incomplete data. We establish a novel characterization of the identified set for the true…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Yanqin Fan , Hyeonseok Park , Brendan Pass , Xuetao Shi

Wearable sensor data offer opportunities for personalized health monitoring, yet deriving actionable insights from their complex, longitudinal data streams is challenging. This paper introduces a framework to learn personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Ajan Subramanian , Amir M. Rahmani