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In-context learning has emerged as a groundbreaking ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) and revolutionized various fields by providing a few task-relevant demonstrations in the prompt. However, trustworthy issues with LLM's response,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-01 Chen Ling , Xujiang Zhao , Xuchao Zhang , Wei Cheng , Yanchi Liu , Yiyou Sun , Mika Oishi , Takao Osaki , Katsushi Matsuda , Jie Ji , Guangji Bai , Liang Zhao , Haifeng Chen

Uncertainty quantification enables users to assess the reliability of responses generated by large language models (LLMs). We present a novel Question Rephrasing technique to evaluate the input uncertainty of LLMs, which refers to the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Zizhang Chen , Pengyu Hong , Sandeep Madireddy

Large Language Models (LLMs) have the tendency to hallucinate, i.e., to sporadically generate false or fabricated information. This presents a major challenge, as hallucinations often appear highly convincing and users generally lack the…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Hsiu-Yuan Huang , Yutong Yang , Zhaoxi Zhang , Sanwoo Lee , Yunfang Wu

Large Language Models (LLMs) are valued for their strong performance across various tasks, but they also produce inaccurate or misleading outputs. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) quantifies the model's confidence and helps users assess response…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Heydar Soudani , Evangelos Kanoulas , Faegheh Hasibi

Reward models are central to aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Yet most approaches rely on pointwise reward estimates that overlook the epistemic uncertainty in reward models arising from limited human feedback.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Daniel Yang , Samuel Stante , Florian Redhardt , Lena Libon , Parnian Kassraie , Ido Hakimi , Barna Pásztor , Andreas Krause

We present Attentive Reasoning Queries (ARQs), a novel structured reasoning approach that significantly improves instruction-following in Large Language Models through domain-specialized reasoning blueprints. While LLMs demonstrate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Bar Karov , Dor Zohar , Yam Marcovitz

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promising results in language generation and instruction following but frequently "hallucinate", making their outputs less reliable. Despite Uncertainty Quantification's (UQ) potential solutions,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Jinhao Duan , Hao Cheng , Shiqi Wang , Alex Zavalny , Chenan Wang , Renjing Xu , Bhavya Kailkhura , Kaidi Xu

Consistency-based methods have emerged as an effective approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large language models. These methods typically rely on several generations obtained via multinomial sampling, measuring their agreement…

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

Despite the increasing demand for safer machine learning practices, the use of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods in production remains limited. This limitation is exacerbated by the challenge of validating UQ methods in absence of UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Arthur Pignet , Chiara Regniez , John Klein

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Mohammad Beigi , Sijia Wang , Ying Shen , Zihao Lin , Adithya Kulkarni , Jianfeng He , Feng Chen , Ming Jin , Jin-Hee Cho , Dawei Zhou , Chang-Tien Lu , Lifu Huang

LLM-as-a-Judge is a widely used method for evaluating the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various tasks. We address the challenge of quantifying the uncertainty of LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations. While uncertainty…

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is as important as predictive accuracy. Extended reasoning via chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Robert Welch , Emir Konuk , Kevin Smith

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Uncertainty quantification has emerged as an effective approach to closed-book hallucination detection for LLMs, but existing methods are largely designed for short-form outputs and do not generalize well to long-form generation. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan , Viren Bajaj , David Skarbrevik

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for Natural Language Generation (NLG) is crucial for assessing the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), as it reveals confidence in predictions, identifies failure modes, and gauges output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Sean Wang , Yicheng Jiang , Yuxin Tang , Lu Cheng , Hanjie Chen