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Deductive reasoning plays a pivotal role in the formulation of sound and cohesive arguments. It allows individuals to draw conclusions that logically follow, given the truth value of the information provided. Recent progress in the domain…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Philipp Mondorf , Barbara Plank

The potential of large language models (LLMs) as decision support tools is increasingly being explored in fields such as business, engineering, and medicine, which often face challenging tasks of decision-making under uncertainty. In this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Ollie Liu , Deqing Fu , Dani Yogatama , Willie Neiswanger

Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Cameron Gruich , Varun Madhavan , Yixin Wang , Bryan Goldsmith

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly show reasoning rationales alongside their answers, turning "reasoning" into a user-interface element. While step-by-step rationales are typically associated with model performance, how they…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Xin Sun , Shu Wei , Jos A Bosch , Isao Echizen , Saku Sugawara , Abdallah El Ali

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Eric Bigelow , Ari Holtzman , Hidenori Tanaka , Tomer Ullman

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research has primarily focused on closed-book factual question answering (QA), while contextual QA remains unexplored, despite its importance in real-world applications. In this work, we focus on UQ for the…

In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Sophia Hager , Simon Zeng , Nicholas Andrews

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xunzhi Wang , Zhuowei Zhang , Gaonan Chen , Qiongyu Li , Bitong Luo , Zhixin Han , Haotian Wang , Zhiyu li , Hang Gao , Mengting Hu

Automated unit test generation is critical for software quality but traditional structure-driven methods often lack the semantic understanding required to produce realistic inputs and oracles. Large language models (LLMs) address this…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Bei Chu , Yang Feng , Kui Liu , Zhaoqiang Guo , Yichi Zhang , Hange Shi , Zifan Nan , Baowen Xu

Large molecular representation models pre-trained on massive unlabeled data have shown great success in predicting molecular properties. However, these models may tend to overfit the fine-tuning data, resulting in over-confident predictions…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-04-18 Yinghao Li , Lingkai Kong , Yuanqi Du , Yue Yu , Yuchen Zhuang , Wenhao Mu , Chao Zhang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capability in many natural language tasks. However, the auto-regressive generation process makes LLMs prone to produce errors, hallucinations and inconsistent statements when…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Chaojie Wang , Yanchen Deng , Zhiyi Lyu , Liang Zeng , Jujie He , Shuicheng Yan , Bo An

Although large language models (LLMs) are highly interactive and extendable, current approaches to ensure reliability in deployments remain mostly limited to rejecting outputs with high uncertainty in order to avoid misinformation. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 T. Duy Nguyen-Hien , Desi R. Ivanova , Yee Whye Teh , Wee Sun Lee

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings where good decisions require forming beliefs over the probability of unknown outcomes. However, it is unclear whether LLMs act as if they hold coherent beliefs…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Khurram Yamin , Jingjing Tang , Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Amit Sharma , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used in decision-making, but their reliability, especially in critical tasks like healthcare, is not well-established. Therefore, understanding how LLMs reason and make decisions is crucial for their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Ze Yu Zhang , Arun Verma , Finale Doshi-Velez , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance in various natural language processing tasks but face challenges in mathematical reasoning, where complex problem-solving requires both linguistic understanding and mathematical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Shuguang Chen , Guang Lin

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

Understanding why a large language model (LLM) is uncertain about the response is important for their reliable deployment. Current approaches, which either provide a single uncertainty score or rely on the classical aleatoric-epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Aditya Taparia , Ransalu Senanayake , Kowshik Thopalli , Vivek Narayanaswamy
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