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We consider a structural stochastic volatility model for the loss from a large portfolio of credit risky assets. Both the asset value and the volatility processes are correlated through systemic Brownian motions, with default determined by…
We consider a stochastic volatility model which captures relevant stylized facts of financial series, including the multi-scaling of moments. The volatility evolves according to a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with super-linear…
In 'A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options', Heston proposes a Stochastic Volatility (SV) model with constant interest rate and derives a semi-explicit valuation formula.…
Human migration exhibits complex spatiotemporal dependence driven by environmental and socioeconomic forces. Modeling such patterns at scale requires methods that accommodate many random effects while remaining feasible when raw data or…
Exact path simulation of the underlying state variable is of great practical importance in simulating prices of financial derivatives or their sensitivities when there are no analytical solutions for their pricing formulas. However, in…
The sampling efficiency of MCMC methods in Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility (SV) models is known to highly depend on the actual parameter values, and the effectiveness of samplers based on different parameterizations varies…
This paper introduces a systematic approach to synthesize linear parameter-varying (LPV) representations of nonlinear (NL) systems which are described by input affine state-space (SS) representations. The conversion approach results in…
In this paper we investigate general linear stochastic volatility models with correlated Brownian noises. In such models the asset price satisfies a linear SDE with coefficient of linearity being the volatility process. This class contains…
Autonomous vehicles (AV) look set to become common on our roads within the next few years. However, to achieve the final breakthrough, not only functional progress is required, but also satisfactory safety assurance must be provided. Among…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are popular tools to analyse time series data in many areas, such as mathematical finance, physics, and biology. They provide a mechanistic description of the phenomeon of interest, and their…
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…
This paper presents a new method to assess default risk based on applying the CEV process to the KMV model. We find that the volatility of the firm asset value may not be a constant, so we assume the firm's asset value dynamics are given by…
We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for…
We propose Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model (VHVM) -- an end-to-end neural network architecture capable of modelling heteroscedastic behaviour in multivariate financial time series. VHVM leverages recent advances in several…
The stochastic differential equation (SDE)-based random process models of volatile renewable energy sources (RESs) jointly capture the evolving probability distribution and temporal correlation in continuous time. It has enabled recent…
We propose a new framework for modeling stochastic local volatility, with potential applications to modeling derivatives on interest rates, commodities, credit, equity, FX etc., as well as hybrid derivatives. Our model extends the…
We introduce Support Decomposition Variational Inference (SDVI), a new variational inference (VI) approach for probabilistic programs with stochastic support. Existing approaches to this problem rely on designing a single global variational…
This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…
Multiscale stochastic volatility models have been developed as an efficient way to capture the principle effects on derivative pricing and portfolio optimization of randomly varying volatility. The recent book Fouque, Papanicolaou, Sircar…
Real-time calibration of stochastic volatility models (SVMs) is computationally bottlenecked by the need to repeatedly solve coupled partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we propose DeepSVM, a physics-informed Deep Operator…