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Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-14 Sebastian Farquhar

We consider stochastic optimization under distributional uncertainty, where the unknown distributional parameter is estimated from streaming data that arrive sequentially over time. Moreover, data may depend on the decision of the time when…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Tianyi Liu , Yifan Lin , Enlu Zhou

We model the communication of narratives as a cheap-talk game under model uncertainty. The sender has private information about the true data generating process of publicly observable data. The receiver is uncertain about how to interpret…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-09 Gerrit Bauch , Manuel Foerster

Neural networks trained with standard objectives exhibit behaviors characteristic of probabilistic inference: soft clustering, prototype specialization, and Bayesian uncertainty tracking. These phenomena appear across architectures -- in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Alan Oursland

Social learning refers to the process by which networked strategic agents learn an unknown state of the world by observing private state-related signals as well as other agents' actions. In their classic work, Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-05-12 Xupeng Wei , Achilleas Anastasopoulos

I study dynamic contracting where Sender privately observes a Markovian state and seeks to motivate Receiver, who acts. Sender provides incentives in two ways: payments, which alter payoffs ex-post, and (Bayesian) persuasion, which shapes…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-22 Daniel Luo

Many multi-agent interaction scenarios can be naturally modeled as noncooperative games, where each agent's decisions depend on others' future actions. However, deploying game-theoretic planners for autonomous decision-making requires a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-05 Yash Jain , Xinjie Liu , Lasse Peters , David Fridovich-Keil , Ufuk Topcu

Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Jiaxin Zhang , Sirui Bi , Guannan Zhang

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods tackle complex scientific models with challenging inverse problems. However, SBI models often face a significant hurdle due to their non-differentiable nature, which hampers the use of gradient-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-29 Vincent D. Zaballa , Elliot E. Hui

We study online learning in Bayesian Stackelberg games, where a leader repeatedly interacts with a follower whose unknown private type is independently drawn at each round from an unknown probability distribution. The goal is to design…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Matteo Bollini , Francesco Bacchiocchi , Samuel Coutts , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi

Many communication, sensor network, and networked control problems involve agents (decision makers) which have either misaligned objective functions or subjective probabilistic models. In the context of such setups, we consider binary…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-09 Serkan Sarıtaş , Sinan Gezici , Serdar Yüksel

Most human behaviors consist of multiple parts, steps, or subtasks. These structures guide our action planning and execution, but when we observe others, the latent structure of their actions is typically unobservable, and must be inferred…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-28 Ryo Nakahashi , Chris L. Baker , Joshua B. Tenenbaum

What are the value and form of optimal persuasion when information can be generated only slowly? We study this question in a dynamic model in which a 'sender' provides public information over time subject to a graduality constraint, and a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-04-19 Matteo Escudé , Ludvig Sinander

The classical model of signaling games assumes that the receiver exactly know the type space (private information) of the sender and be able to discriminate each type of the sender distinctly. However, the justification of this assumption…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2010-02-24 Haoyang Wu

We introduce a model of estimation in the presence of strategic, self-interested sensors. We employ a game-theoretic setup to model the interaction between the sensors and the receiver. The cost function of the receiver is equal to the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-06-26 Farhad Farokhi , Andre M. H. Teixeira , Cedric Langbort

To make decisions we are guided by the evidence we collect, as well as the opinions of friends and neighbors. How do we integrate our private beliefs with information we obtain from our social network? To understand the strategies humans…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-04 Bhargav Karamched , Simon Stolarczyk , Zachary Kilpatrick , Krešimir Josić

The literature on strategic communication originated with the influential cheap talk model, which precedes the Bayesian persuasion model by three decades. This model describes an interaction between two agents: sender and receiver. The…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-11 Yakov Babichenko , Inbal Talgam-Cohen , Haifeng Xu , Konstantin Zabarnyi

In decentralized decision-making problems, agents choose their actions based on locally available information and knowledge about decision rules or strategies of other agents. We consider a three-node cascade network with an encoder, a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Rony Bou Rouphael , Maël Le trust

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

We present an optimizer which uses Bayesian optimization to tune the system parameters of distributed stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Given a specific context, our goal is to quickly find efficient configurations which appropriately…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-04 Valentin Dalibard , Michael Schaarschmidt , Eiko Yoneki