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In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

We introduce and analyze a parallel sequential Monte Carlo methodology for the numerical solution of optimization problems that involve the minimization of a cost function that consists of the sum of many individual components. The proposed…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-04 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Dan Crisan , Joaquín Míguez

By means of the Malliavin calculus, integral representations for the likelihood function and for the derivative of the log-likelihood function are given for a model based on discrete time observations of the solution to equation…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-13 D. O. Ivanenko , A. M. Kulik

Discretizations of Langevin diffusions provide a powerful method for sampling and Bayesian inference. However, such discretizations require evaluation of the gradient of the potential function. In several real-world scenarios, obtaining…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-19 Abhishek Roy , Lingqing Shen , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Saeed Ghadimi

Stochastic approximation methods play a central role in maximum likelihood estimation problems involving intractable likelihood functions, such as marginal likelihoods arising in problems with missing or incomplete data, and in parametric…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Valentin De Bortoli , Alain Durmus , Marcelo Pereyra , Ana F. Vidal

Sampling from various kinds of distributions is an issue of paramount importance in statistics since it is often the key ingredient for constructing estimators, test procedures or confidence intervals. In many situations, the exact sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Avetik Karagulyan

This paper proposes a new approach using the stochastic projected gradient method and Malliavin calculus for optimal reinsurance and investment strategies. Unlike traditional methodologies, we aim to optimize static investment and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-11 Yuta Otsuki , Shotaro Yagishita

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-07 David J. Warne , Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

We propose a single time-scale stochastic subgradient method for constrained optimization of a composition of several nonsmooth and nonconvex functions. The functions are assumed to be locally Lipschitz and differentiable in a generalized…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Andrzej Ruszczynski

In this paper, we present a method for the accurate estimation of the derivative (aka.~sensitivity) of expectations of functions involving an indicator function by combining a stochastic algorithmic differentiation and a regression. The…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-11-13 Christian P. Fries

We consider the problem of optimising the expected value of a loss functional over a nonlinear model class of functions, assuming that we have only access to realisations of the gradient of the loss. This is a classical task in statistics,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Robert Gruhlke , Anthony Nouy , Philipp Trunschke

In this paper, we establish a probabilistic representation as well as some integration by parts formulae for the marginal law at a given time maturity of some stochastic volatility model with unbounded drift. Relying on a perturbation…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Junchao Chen , Noufel Frikha , Houzhi Li

This paper studies the performative prediction problem where a learner aims to minimize the expected loss with a decision-dependent data distribution. Such setting is motivated when outcomes can be affected by the prediction model, e.g., in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Haitong Liu , Qiang Li , Hoi-To Wai

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Sundar Ganesh , Fabio Nobile

Likelihood-free methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, are powerful tools for practical inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo variants of approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-26 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

We design a numerical scheme for solving a Dynamic Programming equation with Malliavin weights arising from the time-discretization of backward stochastic differential equations with the integration by parts-representation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Emmanuel Gobet , Plamen Turkedjiev

In this paper we consider stochastic weakly convex composite problems, however without the existence of a stochastic subgradient oracle. We present a derivative free algorithm that uses a two point approximation for computing a gradient…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-20 V. Kungurtsev , F. Rinaldi

Malliavin Calculus is about Sobolev-type regularity of functionals on Wiener space, the main example being the Ito map obtained by solving stochastic differential equations. Rough path analysis is about strong regularity of solution to…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-12 Thomas Cass , Peter Friz , Nicolas Victoir

A novel approach called Moate Simulation is presented to provide an accurate numerical evolution of probability distribution functions represented on grids arising from stochastic differential processes where initial conditions are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-19 Michael E. Mura

We revisit the problem of sampling from a target distribution that has a smooth strongly log-concave density everywhere in $\mathbb R^p$. In this context, if no additional density information is available, the randomized midpoint…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-19 Lu Yu , Avetik Karagulyan , Arnak Dalalyan