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Related papers: Flow Matching for Robust Simulation-Based Inferenc…

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Generative models can produce nonsensical text, unrealistic images, and unstable materials faster than simulation or human review can absorb; without per-sample confidence, trust erodes. Existing fixes run $k$ ensembles or stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Friso de Kruiff , Dario Coscia , Max Welling , Erik Bekkers

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-13 Justine Zeghal , François Lanusse , Alexandre Boucaud , Benjamin Remy , Eric Aubourg

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is emerging as a new statistical paradigm for addressing complex scientific inference problems. By leveraging the representational power of deep neural networks, SBI can extract the most informative…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-17 Huifang Lyu , James Alvey , Noemi Anau Montel , Mauro Pieroni , Christoph Weniger

Recent advances in neural density estimation have enabled powerful simulation-based inference (SBI) methods that can flexibly approximate Bayesian inference for intractable stochastic models. Although these methods have demonstrated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-17 Matthew O'Callaghan , Kaisey S. Mandel , Gerry Gilmore

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jan Boelts , Cornelius Schröder , Jonas Beck , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler , Daniel Gedon

Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Manuel Gloeckler , Shoji Toyota , Kenji Fukumizu , Jakob H. Macke

Simulation based inference (SBI) methods enable the estimation of posterior distributions when the likelihood function is intractable, but where model simulation is feasible. Popular neural approaches to SBI are the neural posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-23 Xiaoyu Wang , Ryan P. Kelly , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Diffusion-based generative models have achieved state-of-the-art performance for perceptual quality in speech enhancement (SE). However, their iterative nature requires numerous Neural Function Evaluations (NFEs), posing a challenge for…

Generating high-quality time-series data is challenging because real-world signals often exhibit multimodal patterns and multiscale dynamics, including oscillations and high-frequency variations. Flow Matching (FM) offers an efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Junru Zhang , Lang Feng , Jinbo Wang , Xu Guo , Yucheng Wang , Han Yu , Min Wu , Yabo Dong , Duanqing Xu

We introduce a novel Mutual Information (MI) estimator that fundamentally reframes the discriminative approach. Instead of training a classifier to discriminate between joint and marginal distributions, we learn a normalizing flow that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Ivan Butakov , Alexander Semenenko , Valeriya Kirova , Alexey Frolov , Ivan Oseledets

Generative models have shown great promise in collaborative filtering by capturing the underlying distribution of user interests and preferences. However, existing approaches struggle with inaccurate posterior approximations and…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Chengkai Liu , Yangtian Zhang , Jianling Wang , Rex Ying , James Caverlee

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) deals with statistical inference in problems where the data are generated from a system that is described by a complex stochastic simulator. The challenge for inference in these problems is that the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-17 David Refaeli , Mira Marcus-Kalish , David M. Steinberg

This paper presents recent methodological advances to perform simulation-based inference (SBI) of a general class of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs), while checking for model misspecification. Our approach is based on a two-step…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-03 Florent Leclercq

Bayesian statistical inference loses predictive optimality when generative models are misspecified. Working within an existing coherent loss-based generalisation of Bayesian inference, we show existing Modular/Cut-model inference is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Chris U. Carmona , Geoff K. Nicholls

The use of reduced and mixed precision computing has gained increasing attention in high-performance computing (HPC) as a means to improve computational efficiency, particularly on modern hardware architectures like GPUs. In this work, we…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Bálint Siklósi , Pushpender K. Sharma , David J. Lusher , István Z. Reguly , Neil D. Sandham

Reconstructing PDE solutions from sparse observations is a core challenge in scientific computing. We present FM4PDE, a flow-matching generative framework that learns the joint distribution of PDE coefficients (or initial states) and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Xifeng Zhang , Jin Zhao

Scientists and engineers use simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. However, tuning the parameters of a simulator to ensure its outputs match observed data presents a significant challenge. Simulation-based inference (SBI)…