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Mediation analysis is a useful tool to evaluate surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. We propose a novel method, the M-survival learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect treatment effects in the presence of censored outcomes. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Xingyu Li , Qing Liu , Xun Jiang , Hong Amy Xia , Brian P. Hobbs , Peng Wei

Federated learning (FL) remains highly vulnerable to adaptive backdoor attacks that preserve stealth by closely imitating benign update statistics. Existing defenses predominantly rely on anomaly detection in parameter or gradient space,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Chibueze Peace Obioma , Youcheng Sun , Mustafa A. Mustafa

We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Jiayi Guo , Zijun Gao

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Motivated by the high resource costs and privacy concerns associated with centralized machine learning, federated learning (FL) has emerged as an efficient alternative that enables clients to collaboratively train a global model while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Yiyue Chen , Usman Akram , Chianing Wang , Haris Vikalo

Causal inference is paramount for understanding the effects of interventions, yet extracting personalized insights from increasingly complex data remains a significant challenge for modern machine learning. This is the case, in particular,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Filippo Salmaso , Lorenzo Testa , Francesca Chiaromonte

Recently, federated learning (FL) is popular for its privacy-preserving and collaborative learning abilities. However, under statistically heterogeneous scenarios, we observe that biased data domains on clients cause a representation bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Jianqing Zhang , Yang Hua , Jian Cao , Hao Wang , Tao Song , Zhengui Xue , Ruhui Ma , Haibing Guan

Analysis of effect heterogeneity at the group level is standard practice in empirical treatment evaluation. However, treatments analyzed are often aggregates of multiple underlying treatments which are themselves heterogeneous, e.g.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-27 Phillip Heiler , Michael C. Knaus

Current backdoor attacks against federated learning (FL) strongly rely on universal triggers or semantic patterns, which can be easily detected and filtered by certain defense mechanisms such as norm clipping, comparing parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-02 Yanqi Qiao , Dazhuang Liu , Congwen Chen , Rui Wang , Kaitai Liang

Federated learning of causal estimands may greatly improve estimation efficiency by leveraging data from multiple study sites, but robustness to heterogeneity and model misspecifications is vital for ensuring validity. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Larry Han , Jue Hou , Kelly Cho , Rui Duan , Tianxi Cai

Due to its decentralized nature, Federated Learning (FL) lends itself to adversarial attacks in the form of backdoors during training. The goal of a backdoor is to corrupt the performance of the trained model on specific sub-tasks (e.g., by…

Recently, many researchers have advanced data-driven methods for modeling heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). Even still, estimation of HTEs is a difficult task -- these methods frequently over- or under-estimate the treatment effects,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-28 Yizhe Xu , Steve Yadlowsky

Randomized clinical trials typically aim to estimate a marginal treatment effect. While covariate adjustment can improve precision, it may change the estimand in nonlinear models due to noncollapsibility, leading to conditional rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Leticia Wuethrich , Torsten Hothorn

The estimation of the treatment effect is often biased in the presence of unobserved confounding variables which are commonly referred to as hidden variables. Although a few methods have been recently proposed to handle the effect of hidden…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Kevin Jiang , Yang Ning

This paper studies treatment effect models in which individuals are classified into unobserved groups based on heterogeneous treatment rules. Using a finite mixture approach, we propose a marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework in which…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

We study Federated Causal Inference, an approach to estimate treatment effects from decentralized data across centers. We compare three classes of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators derived from the Plug-in G-Formula, ranging from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Rémi Khellaf , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse

The goal of federated learning (FL) is to train one global model by aggregating model parameters updated independently on edge devices without accessing users' private data. However, FL is susceptible to backdoor attacks where a small…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Yein Kim , Huili Chen , Farinaz Koushanfar

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning paradigm that maximizes the potential of data-driven models for edge devices without sharing their raw data. However, devices often have non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-31 Zijian Li , Zehong Lin , Jiawei Shao , Yuyi Mao , Jun Zhang

The fundamental problem in treatment effect estimation from observational data is confounder identification and balancing. Most of the previous methods realized confounder balancing by treating all observed pre-treatment variables as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Junkun Yuan , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Qiang Zhu , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

The need to evaluate treatment effectiveness is ubiquitous in most of empirical science, and interest in flexibly investigating effect heterogeneity is growing rapidly. To do so, a multitude of model-agnostic, nonparametric meta-learners…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar
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